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Should I ship a Martial-Arts Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Martial Arts
Of 49 developers who shipped a Martial-Arts Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 93 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $1.0M, ×1645 the market median. Revenue is up 85% on the market; 93 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $179 (exactly $179) |
|---|---|
| Median | $600 (exactly $600) |
| Top 25% | $7.0k (exactly $7,008) |
| Top 5% | $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 49 |
| Released games | 158 |
| Announced | 93 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 85% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Swordplay
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
- Martial Arts
- effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action RPG, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 31,833 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 93 games are announced against 25 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS 2025 · $41M 
Wandering Sword 2023 · $28M 
Sifu 2023 · $26M 
Absolver 2017 · $10M 
下一站江湖Ⅱ 2024 · $6.4M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | DYNASTY WARRIORS: ORIGINS | $69.99 | 19,578 92% | 587k | $41M (exactly $41,107,927) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
| | Wandering Sword | older | $24.99 | 37,034 94% | 1.1M | $28M (exactly $27,764,390) | The Swordman Studio |
| | Sifu | older | $39.99 | 21,620 92% | 649k | $26M (exactly $25,937,514) | Sloclap |
| | Absolver | older | $29.99 | 11,464 74% | 344k | $10M (exactly $10,314,161) | Sloclap |
| | 下一站江湖Ⅱ | older | $24.99 | 8,507 72% | 255k | $6.4M (exactly $6,377,698) | 白玉京工作室 |
 | The Wind Road | older | $29.99 | 5,920 69% | 178k | $5.3M (exactly $5,326,224) | 甘肃嘉元数字科技有限公司 |
 | NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black | $49.99 | 3,289 78% | 99k | $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Hellish Quart | · EA older | $17.99 | 8,068 88% | 242k | $4.4M (exactly $4,354,300) | Kubold |
 | Trek to Yomi | older | $19.99 | 1,967 72% | 59k | $1.2M (exactly $1,179,610) | Leonard Menchiari, Flying Wild Hog |
 | Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage | $19.99 | 1,897 71% | 57k | $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) | RGG Studio | |
 | Psychic Kung Fu Master | $19.99 | 1,723 60% | 52k | $1.0M (exactly $1,033,283) | 金十四工作室 | |
 | LIZARDS MUST DIE 2 | $9.99 | 2,232 94% | 67k | $669k (exactly $668,930) | the Bratans, Smola Game Studio | |
 | Gladio Mori | $15.99 | 1,147 82% | 34k | $550k (exactly $550,216) | Plebeian Studio | |
 | Backpack Jianghu | $13.99 | 565 80% | 17k | $237k (exactly $237,130) | 背包工作室 | |
 | 小小侠客模拟器 | $2.99 | 1,103 86% | 33k | $99k (exactly $98,939) | 小小游戏 | |
 | IGS Classic Arcade Collection | $29.99 | 94 60% | 2.8k | $85k (exactly $84,572) | IGS(台灣鈊象電子) | |
 | Red Masked Ronin: Desires and Shadows | · EA | $12.99 | 205 64% | 6.2k | $80k (exactly $79,888) | Light Hunt Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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