Do I ship it?

Games › Swordplay › Swordplay + Cyberpunk

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Cyberpunk Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Cyberpunk

Only 11 developers shipped a Cyberpunk Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, NINJA GAIDEN 4, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 31 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $210, ×0.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 31 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper, while revenue is up 11535% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 11535% on the market, 31 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Cyberpunk
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 11
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $22k → $3.6k → $19k → $208 → $13k
Outcomes for Swordplay + Cyberpunk: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 11
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $208 (exactly $208)
Top 25% $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 5% $18M (exactly $17,761,362)
Developers, 2 yr 11
Released games 52
Announced 31
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 11535% on the market, supply 75% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Cyberpunk
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Hack and Slash, Action-Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Difficult, Fast-Paced, Pixel Graphics
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 6 games average 88% positive over 8,662 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $210, 1 in 4 over $13k, 1 in 20 over $17M.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 31 games are announced against 7 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE 2014 · $62M Ghostrunner 2020 · $42M NINJA GAIDEN 4 2025 · $18M Ghostrunner 2 2023 · $9.6M Killer is Dead - Nightmare Edition 2014 · $2.3M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE older $29.99 69,104 96% 2.1M $62M (exactly $62,172,869) PlatinumGames
Ghostrunner older $29.99 46,818 91% 1.4M $42M (exactly $42,122,155) One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games)
NINJA GAIDEN 4 $69.99 8,459 88% 254k $18M (exactly $17,761,362) PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI… (PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.)
Ghostrunner 2 older $39.99 7,981 80% 239k $9.6M (exactly $9,574,806) One More Level
Killer is Dead - Nightmare Edition older $19.99 3,879 75% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,326,236) KADOKAWA GAMES / GRASSHOPPER MANUFACTURE
Wanted: Dead older $29.99 1,373 67% 41k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,288) Soleil Ltd.
Synth Riders older $24.99 1,336 92% 40k $1.0M (exactly $1,001,599) Kluge Interactive
Akane older $4.99 2,753 95% 83k $412k (exactly $412,124) Ludic Studios
The Divine Invasion older $14.99 690 79% 21k $310k (exactly $310,293) Whale Rock Games
LONN older $29.99 201 64% 6.0k $181k (exactly $180,840) SixSense Studios
Lia: Hacking Destiny $14.99 92 96% 2.8k $41k (exactly $41,372) Orube Game Studio
Disco Samurai $9.99 45 88% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) Pixel Fiber Games
RHYTHMKILL $9.99 45 82% 1.4k $13k (exactly $13,486) GETTAKE
Unpatterned Cut $9.99 14 100% 420 $4.2k (exactly $4,196) Vnow Games
Dunia: The North Wood - Episode 0 $0.99 7 100% 210 $208 (exactly $208) Team Wood Block
TalesOfVengeance $19.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) MasterBun
Teamfight Royale $3.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Festucs Interactive
Blade of Jinshu $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Travis Carpenter
I am a bad guy in school bullying $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) FSK20007

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.