Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Horror

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Horror Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Horror

Only 13 developers shipped a Horror Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Onimusha: Way of the Sword, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×9.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 4 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $43k against a market of $630. 37 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 68.8 times the market baseline, revenue up 2235% on the market, 37 announced, ×9.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Horror
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.0k → $1.9k → $22k → $299 → $359 → $156k
Outcomes for Swordplay + Horror: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $43k (exactly $43,189)
Top 25% $668k (exactly $668,258)
Top 5% $24M (exactly $23,682,516)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 48
Announced 37
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 2235% on the market, supply 60% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Horror
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 20,662 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $43k, 1 in 4 over $660k, 1 in 20 over $23M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 6 in 10 of the 10 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 4 developers who shipped in the last year, ×9.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Onimusha: Way of the Sword $69.99 11,279 89% 338k $24M (exactly $23,682,516) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Hellblade II: Senua’s Saga older $49.99 9,381 86% 281k $14M (exactly $14,068,686) Ninja Theory
GORN older $19.99 7,449 94% 223k $4.5M (exactly $4,467,165) Free Lives
Mortal Sin $24.99 5,583 94% 167k $4.2M (exactly $4,185,575) Nikola Todorovic
Hellsplit: Arena older $24.99 3,735 83% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,800,130) Deep Type Games
Soulstice older $39.99 1,845 76% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,213,446) Reply Game Studios
Onimusha: Warlords older $19.99 2,843 93% 85k $1.7M (exactly $1,704,947) CAPCOM CO., LTD
Labyrinth Of The Demon King $19.99 2,116 92% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,268,965) J. R. Hudepohl
Dungeons of Blood and Dream $18.99 1,173 93% 35k $668k (exactly $668,258) Lori Vornoy
Swordsman VR older $19.99 651 68% 20k $390k (exactly $390,405) Sinn Studio Inc.
Captain Bones : A Pirate's Journey $14.99 348 79% 10k $156k (exactly $156,496) World of Poly
Breath of Life $14.99 104 78% 3.1k $47k (exactly $46,769) Satur Entertainment
Lady Death Demonicron $39.99 36 47% 1.1k $43k (exactly $43,189) Art Of Play Interactive
Ghost Infinite Labyrinth $7.99 15 60% 450 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) riinwin
虚衝 - Kyosho $9.99 5 80% 150 $1.5k (exactly $1,498) むつむつプロジェクト(Mutsu'pro)
Jumpscare Slayer $3.99 3 100% 90 $359 (exactly $359) Rusimitu Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.