Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Robots

Only 9 developers shipped a Robot Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Arken Age, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 19 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $240, ×0.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $50. 19 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper, while revenue is down 100% on the market.

Deciding numbers: median 0.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 19 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 9
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $19k → $239 → $60 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 9
Bottom 30% $0 (exactly $0)
Median $239 (exactly $239)
Top 25% $809 (exactly $809)
Top 5% $803k (exactly $802,599)
Developers, 2 yr 9
Released games 40
Announced 19
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 100% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay
Price point
$5.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 94% positive over 39,748 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $50, median $240, 1 in 4 over $800, 1 in 20 over $800k.

3 in 10 developers made under $50. 6 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 19 games are announced against 5 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Clone Drone in the Danger Zone older $19.99 36,084 96% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,639,575) Doborog Games
Arken Age $39.99 669 90% 20k $803k (exactly $802,599) VitruviusVR
Clone Drone in the Hyperdome $19.99 1,048 91% 31k $628k (exactly $628,486) Doborog Games
Project MIKHAIL: A Muv-Luv War Story older $19.99 706 54% 21k $423k (exactly $423,388) aNCHOR Inc., fuzz, Inc.
Project Demigod older $19.99 397 69% 12k $238k (exactly $238,081) Omnifarious Studios LLC
Panzer Paladin older $19.99 334 76% 10k $200k (exactly $200,300) Tribute Games Inc.
Lithium City older $7.99 286 92% 8.6k $69k (exactly $68,554) Nico Tuason
Proxy Blade Zero older $9.99 131 76% 3.9k $39k (exactly $39,261) D6
The Crown of Wu older $19.99 31 80% 930 $19k (exactly $18,591) Red Mountain
Axiom of Maria: Prologue older $9.99 62 90% 1.9k $19k (exactly $18,581) Studio Ganzheit
Dungeon-Bot $8.99 3 100% 90 $809 (exactly $809) XREALL
DAMex : DArk Matter Exodus $4.99 4 75% 120 $599 (exactly $599) Benoit Locu
Cadence $3.99 2 100% 60 $239 (exactly $239) BitShift_Games
Cyber Saber PRO $1.99 1 100% 30 $60 (exactly $60) HatCatGames
Karakuri Ninja VR $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Odd Team XR Studios
Asteroids and Aliens $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Star 1 Studio
RED BEES $5.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Vox Mare

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.