Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Female Protagonist

Of 39 developers who shipped a Female-Led Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 79 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $13k, ×21 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.4k; 1 in 20 cleared $7.5M, ×12002 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 79 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 21.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 79 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 39
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $271k → $6.0k → $7.5k → $19k → $3.6k → $12k → $47k (still earning) → $2.4k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 39
Bottom 30% $2.3k (exactly $2,328)
Median $13k (exactly $13,486)
Top 25% $70k (exactly $69,896)
Top 5% $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144)
Developers, 2 yr 39
Released games 126
Announced 79
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $39.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Third Person, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $39.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 43,878 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.4k, median $13k, 1 in 4 over $69k, 1 in 20 over $7.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.4k. 6 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 79 games are announced against 24 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  10. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  11. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds40 devs · median $7.5k · 117 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Granblue Fantasy: Relink older $39.99 41,227 89% 1.2M $49M (exactly $49,460,032) Cygames, Inc.
Bright Memory: Infinite older $19.99 36,229 91% 1.1M $22M (exactly $21,726,531) FYQD-Studio
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
Hellblade II: Senua’s Saga older $49.99 9,381 86% 281k $14M (exactly $14,068,686) Ninja Theory
Beast of Reincarnation $59.99 4,188 56% 126k $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) GAME FREAK inc.
STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight - Jedi Academy™ older $9.99 11,290 96% 339k $3.4M (exactly $3,383,613) Raven Software
En Garde! older $19.99 4,161 90% 125k $2.5M (exactly $2,495,352) Fireplace Games
Soulstice older $39.99 1,845 76% 55k $2.2M (exactly $2,213,446) Reply Game Studios
Echoes of the End: Enhanced Edition $39.99 1,484 78% 45k $1.8M (exactly $1,780,355) Myrkur Games
Rustil: Eternal Labyrinth Castle $18.99 950 71% 29k $541k (exactly $541,215) KTMG LLC.
1348 Ex Voto $24.99 705 53% 21k $529k (exactly $528,538) Sedleo
Halluci-Sabbat of Koishi $7.99 701 91% 21k $168k (exactly $168,030) ZRIGN 地霊研究院
The Knight Girl And Dungeons $11.99 397 67% 12k $143k (exactly $142,801) こねこぼくし
Queen's Blade Re:Build $27.77 93 70% 2.8k $77k (exactly $77,478) SE Mobile and Online Co.,Ltd., C&R… (SE Mobile and Online Co.,Ltd., C&R Creative Studios)
Snow x Hime $12.99 195 55% 5.9k $76k (exactly $75,992) Kazuya, tensun3d
Yuri Sword Saga $10.99 212 97% 6.4k $70k (exactly $69,896) Pico Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.