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Should I ship a Sci-fi Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Sci-fi
Of 25 developers who shipped a Sci-fi Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×4.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $600, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1336 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 56 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $239 (exactly $239) |
|---|---|
| Median | $599 (exactly $599) |
| Top 25% | $11k (exactly $11,242) |
| Top 5% | $839k (exactly $839,233) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 25 |
| Released games | 103 |
| Announced | 56 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 10% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $59.99 or above
- Art
- 4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $59.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 87% positive over 12,161 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 14 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 13 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019 · $184M 
STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ 2023 · $168M 
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE 2014 · $62M 
Ghostrunner 2020 · $42M 
Bright Memory: Infinite 2021 · $22M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ | older | $39.99 | 153,782 88% | 4.6M | $184M (exactly $184,492,265) | Respawn Entertainment |
| | STAR WARS Jedi: Survivor™ | older | $69.99 | 79,990 71% | 2.4M | $168M (exactly $167,955,003) | Respawn |
| | METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE | older | $29.99 | 69,104 96% | 2.1M | $62M (exactly $62,172,869) | PlatinumGames |
| | Ghostrunner | older | $29.99 | 46,818 91% | 1.4M | $42M (exactly $42,122,155) | One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games) |
| | Bright Memory: Infinite | older | $19.99 | 36,229 91% | 1.1M | $22M (exactly $21,726,531) | FYQD-Studio |
 | NINJA GAIDEN 4 | $69.99 | 8,459 88% | 254k | $18M (exactly $17,761,362) | PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI… (PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.) | |
 | STAR WARS™ Jedi Knight - Jedi Academy™ | older | $9.99 | 11,290 96% | 339k | $3.4M (exactly $3,383,613) | Raven Software |
 | SpiderHeck | older | $14.99 | 3,922 93% | 118k | $1.8M (exactly $1,763,723) | Neverjam |
 | Monochrome Mobius: Rights and Wrongs Forgotten | older | $59.99 | 759 80% | 23k | $1.4M (exactly $1,365,972) | AQUAPLUS |
 | Assassin's Creed Freedom Cry | older | $14.99 | 2,891 77% | 87k | $1.3M (exactly $1,300,083) | Ubisoft Montreal |
 | Morbid Metal | · EA | $17.99 | 1,555 81% | 47k | $839k (exactly $839,233) | SCREEN JUICE |
 | Arken Age | $39.99 | 669 90% | 20k | $803k (exactly $802,599) | VitruviusVR | |
 | Clone Drone in the Hyperdome | $19.99 | 1,048 91% | 31k | $628k (exactly $628,486) | Doborog Games | |
 | Utawarerumono: Past and Present Rediscovered | $59.99 | 289 83% | 8.7k | $520k (exactly $520,113) | AQUAPLUS | |
 | Lia: Hacking Destiny | $14.99 | 92 96% | 2.8k | $41k (exactly $41,372) | Orube Game Studio | |
 | Reavers of New Rome | $14.99 | 25 96% | 750 | $11k (exactly $11,242) | Renegade Sector Games | |
 | Sportvida CyberDash | $19.99 | 7 85% | 210 | $4.2k (exactly $4,198) | ible Sportvida | |
 | Unpatterned Cut | $9.99 | 14 100% | 420 | $4.2k (exactly $4,196) | Vnow Games | |
 | SurvivalWorld | · EA | $11.99 | 3 100% | 90 | $1.1k (exactly $1,079) | Robert De Leon |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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