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Should I ship a Fantasy Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Fantasy
Of 129 developers who shipped a Fantasy Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 311 more are announced, ×4.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2210 the market median. Revenue is up 315% on the market; 311 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $358 (exactly $358) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.0k (exactly $1,015) |
| Top 25% | $35k (exactly $34,783) |
| Top 5% | $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 129 |
| Released games | 445 |
| Announced | 311 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $8.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 315% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, RPG
- Price point
- $8.99 typical · top 25% priced $29.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 3D, Atmospheric
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.
The top 10 games average 79% positive over 23,354 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 82 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 311 games are announced against 64 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ 2019 · $184M 
FOR HONOR™ 2017 · $98M 
Dragon's Dogma 2 2024 · $92M 
Blade and Sorcery 2024 · $53M 
Granblue Fantasy: Relink 2024 · $49M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | STAR WARS Jedi: Fallen Order™ | older | $39.99 | 153,782 88% | 4.6M | $184M (exactly $184,492,265) | Respawn Entertainment |
| | FOR HONOR™ | older | $29.99 | 108,492 69% | 3.3M | $98M (exactly $97,610,252) | Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte) |
| | Dragon's Dogma 2 | older | $39.99 | 76,627 62% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $91,929,412) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | Blade and Sorcery | older | $29.99 | 59,074 96% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $53,148,878) | WarpFrog |
| | Granblue Fantasy: Relink | older | $39.99 | 41,227 89% | 1.2M | $49M (exactly $49,460,032) | Cygames, Inc. |
 | ASTLIBRA Revision | older | $24.99 | 30,262 95% | 908k | $23M (exactly $22,687,421) | KEIZO |
 | SOULCALIBUR VI | older | $59.99 | 9,768 83% | 293k | $18M (exactly $17,579,470) | BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation) |
 | Mortal Online 2 | older | $39.99 | 11,103 59% | 333k | $13M (exactly $13,320,269) | Star Vault AB |
 | Like a Dragon: Pirate Yakuza in Hawaii | $59.99 | 6,584 88% | 198k | $12M (exactly $11,849,225) | RGG Studio | |
 | Tails of Iron | older | $24.99 | 13,116 87% | 393k | $9.8M (exactly $9,833,065) | Odd Bug Studio |
 | Beast of Reincarnation | $59.99 | 4,188 56% | 126k | $7.5M (exactly $7,537,144) | GAME FREAK inc. | |
 | SWORD ART ONLINE Fractured Daydream | $59.99 | 2,021 64% | 61k | $3.6M (exactly $3,637,194) | Dimps Corporation | |
 | Echoes of the End: Enhanced Edition | $39.99 | 1,484 78% | 45k | $1.8M (exactly $1,780,355) | Myrkur Games | |
 | Alaloth: Champions of The Four Kingdoms | $34.99 | 1,559 72% | 47k | $1.6M (exactly $1,636,482) | Gamera Interactive | |
 | Sword of the Sea | $29.99 | 1,638 89% | 49k | $1.5M (exactly $1,473,709) | Giant Squid | |
 | Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter | $24.99 | 1,851 79% | 56k | $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) | Odd Bug Studio | |
 | Labyrinth Of The Demon King | $19.99 | 2,116 92% | 63k | $1.3M (exactly $1,268,965) | J. R. Hudepohl | |
 | Arken Age | $39.99 | 669 90% | 20k | $803k (exactly $802,599) | VitruviusVR | |
 | Stonemachia | $19.99 | 1,244 95% | 37k | $746k (exactly $746,027) | Crossfall Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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