Games › Swordplay › Swordplay + Ninja
Should I ship a Ninja Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Ninja
Of 32 developers who shipped a Ninja Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 47 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $17M, ×28282 the market median. Revenue is down 90% on the market; 47 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $120 (exactly $120) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,798) |
| Top 25% | $20k (exactly $20,135) |
| Top 5% | $18M (exactly $17,761,362) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 32 |
| Released games | 123 |
| Announced | 47 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 90% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay; 8 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Action-Adventure, Adventure
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $69.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, Violent, Gore
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $69.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 76% positive over 58,231 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $120. 6 in 10 of the 19 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 47 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
Assassin’s Creed Shadows 2025 · $73M 
METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE 2014 · $62M 
Ghostrunner 2020 · $42M 
Shadow Warrior 2 2016 · $22M 
NINJA GAIDEN 4 2025 · $18M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Assassin’s Creed Shadows | $69.99 | 34,953 75% | 1.0M | $73M (exactly $73,390,814) | Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine) | |
| | METAL GEAR RISING: REVENGEANCE | older | $29.99 | 69,104 96% | 2.1M | $62M (exactly $62,172,869) | PlatinumGames |
| | Ghostrunner | older | $29.99 | 46,818 91% | 1.4M | $42M (exactly $42,122,155) | One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Iro… (One More Level, 3D Realms, Slipgate Ironworks™, All in! Games) |
| | Shadow Warrior 2 | older | $29.99 | 24,120 87% | 724k | $22M (exactly $21,700,764) | Flying Wild Hog |
| | NINJA GAIDEN 4 | $69.99 | 8,459 88% | 254k | $18M (exactly $17,761,362) | PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI… (PlatinumGames Inc. / Team NINJA / KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD.) | |
 | Shadow Warrior | older | $29.99 | 15,960 92% | 479k | $14M (exactly $14,359,212) | Flying Wild Hog |
 | Rise of the Ronin | $49.99 | 6,503 64% | 195k | $9.8M (exactly $9,752,549) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | Ghostrunner 2 | older | $39.99 | 7,981 80% | 239k | $9.6M (exactly $9,574,806) | One More Level |
 | NINJA GAIDEN 2 Black | $49.99 | 3,289 78% | 99k | $4.9M (exactly $4,932,513) | KOEI TECMO GAMES CO., LTD. | |
 | SAMURAI SHODOWN | older | $49.53 | 1,685 81% | 51k | $2.5M (exactly $2,503,742) | SNK CORPORATION |
 | Virtua Fighter 5 R.E.V.O. World Stage | $19.99 | 1,897 71% | 57k | $1.1M (exactly $1,137,631) | RGG Studio | |
 | Onimusha 2: Samurai's Destiny | $29.99 | 663 85% | 20k | $597k (exactly $596,501) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. | |
 | Yasuke Simulator | $6.99 | 1,925 97% | 58k | $404k (exactly $403,672) | HistoryAccurateDevelopers | |
 | The Spirit of the Samurai | $19.99 | 413 59% | 12k | $248k (exactly $247,676) | Digital Mind Games | |
 | HYAKKI YAKO Survivor | $7.99 | 84 67% | 2.5k | $20k (exactly $20,135) | pixyda,inc. | |
 | RHYTHMKILL | $9.99 | 45 82% | 1.4k | $13k (exactly $13,486) | GETTAKE |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.