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Should I ship a Military Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Military
Only 9 developers shipped a Military Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Robin Hood: Sherwood Defenders, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced, ×7.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.
Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $150 against a market of $630. 21 games are announced.
not enough cohorts to draw
| Bottom 30% | $0 (exactly $0) |
|---|---|
| Median | $148 (exactly $148) |
| Top 25% | $505 (exactly $505) |
| Top 5% | $9.0k (exactly $8,992) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 9 |
| Released games | 27 |
| Announced | 21 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 50% fewer developers than the period before.
Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay
- Price point
- $9.99 typical
Why players buy here
Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 78% positive over 48,129 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $50. All of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×7.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
Chivalry 2 2022 · $56M 
Project MIKHAIL: A Muv-Luv War Story 2024 · $423k 
Ironsmith Medieval Simulator 2022 · $64k 
Sea Dogs: City of Abandoned Ships 2018 · $59k 
Sea Dogs: Caribbean Tales 2018 · $46k | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Chivalry 2 | older | $39.99 | 46,707 79% | 1.4M | $56M (exactly $56,034,388) | Torn Banner Studios |
| | Project MIKHAIL: A Muv-Luv War Story | older | $19.99 | 706 54% | 21k | $423k (exactly $423,388) | aNCHOR Inc., fuzz, Inc. |
| | Ironsmith Medieval Simulator | older | $9.99 | 214 26% | 6.4k | $64k (exactly $64,136) | The EpicLore |
| | Sea Dogs: City of Abandoned Ships | older | $7.99 | 245 76% | 7.4k | $59k (exactly $58,726) | Akella |
| | Sea Dogs: Caribbean Tales | older | $11.99 | 127 62% | 3.8k | $46k (exactly $45,682) | Akella |
 | Valand | older | $7.99 | 54 59% | 1.6k | $13k (exactly $12,944) | LOMS Studio |
 | Bakemono - Demon Brigade Tenmen Unit 01 | · EA older | $19.99 | 17 70% | 510 | $10k (exactly $10,195) | SuperSane Games |
 | Robin Hood: Sherwood Defenders | $11.99 | 25 44% | 750 | $9.0k (exactly $8,992) | MeanAstronauts | |
 | BannerBound | · EA | $12.99 | 15 73% | 450 | $5.8k (exactly $5,846) | Cosmic noise |
 | Avalon Lords: Dawn Rises | · EA older | $9.99 | 19 47% | 570 | $5.7k (exactly $5,694) | Animus Interactive Inc |
 | Kill Dee | $0.99 | 17 82% | 510 | $505 (exactly $505) | BYE BYE, BUYBYEGames | |
 | Accurate Adjacent Ballistics Simulator | $9.99 | 1 0% | 30 | $300 (exactly $300) | MagusForge | |
 | Ninja Wars: Battle Simulator | $0.99 | 5 40% | 150 | $148 (exactly $148) | Yusuf Islam Seyhan, Samet Acar | |
 | ITribe | $14.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Keka | |
 | Kingdom Wars | $9.90 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Obsidiagon | |
 | Wisp Gunner | $0.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | 000ghost | |
 | Sword World VR | $14.99 | 0 0% | 0 | $0 (exactly $0) | Chubby Knight Workshop |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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