Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Supernatural

Only 10 developers shipped a Supernatural Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Labyrinth Of The Demon King, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 18 more are announced, ×6.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 6 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $960 against a market of $630. 18 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 100% on the market, 18 announced, ×6.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 10

not enough cohorts to draw

Outcomes for Swordplay + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 10
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $958 (exactly $958)
Top 25% $5.7k (exactly $5,664)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,268,965)
Developers, 2 yr 10
Released games 28
Announced 18
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue too few recent games to read momentum, supply 55% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 25%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay
Price point
$8.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 7 games average 92% positive over 2,187 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $960, 1 in 4 over $5.6k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 8 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 18 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×6.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
ASTLIBRA Revision older $24.99 30,262 95% 908k $23M (exactly $22,687,421) KEIZO
Labyrinth Of The Demon King $19.99 2,116 92% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,268,965) J. R. Hudepohl
Specters of the Deep $11.99 34 91% 1.0k $12k (exactly $12,230) Choice of Games
Trap for the Heir $8.99 21 90% 630 $5.7k (exactly $5,664) MariLuzaria
Shonen Adventure : The Dual Blades Hero older $13.99 5 60% 150 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Melvyn Boutel
Ortho Blaze $13.99 4 25% 120 $1.7k (exactly $1,679) Paracelsus Team
Last Stronghold $3.99 8 62% 240 $958 (exactly $958) skR1me
SurvivalEXtreme older $5.99 4 50% 120 $719 (exactly $719) LegendaryLegion
Princess Tier:Part 1 older $2.99 7 85% 210 $628 (exactly $628) Black Dot Studio
Argyle Manor, Book 1: Away From The Sun older $19.99 1 100% 30 $600 (exactly $600) Palladine Studios
Frog & Blade $8.99 2 100% 60 $539 (exactly $539) StarGazer
Times Dungeon $1.99 2 50% 60 $119 (exactly $119) Mad Quark
Battlement $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Henkdg
Cryptoria $2.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) XnaxlZzz_Studios
Fallen Sin $4.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Mimbis

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.