Do I ship it?

Games › Swordplay › Swordplay + Assassins

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Assassin Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Assassins

Only 7 developers shipped an Assassin Swordplay game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Assassin’s Creed Shadows, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 25 more are announced, ×8.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: dead, for a 7 / 10 build.

Only 3 developers shipped this in the last year, under the 5 a verdict needs; over 2 years the middle one made $1.4k against a market of $1.5k. 25 games are announced.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 25 announced, ×8.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Assassins
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 7
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $150 → $1.1k → $599
Outcomes for Swordplay + Assassins: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 7
Bottom 30% $599 (exactly $599)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,438)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,826)
Top 5% $73M (exactly $73,390,814)
Developers, 2 yr 7
Released games 31
Announced 25
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 25% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Assassins
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Swordplay
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

Fewer than 10 games in the last 2 years; sentiment and price figures use the all window.

The top 25% priced at $29.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 75% positive over 38,802 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $600, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $73M.

3 in 10 developers made under $600. 8 in 10 of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 25 games are announced against 3 developers who shipped in the last year, ×8.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Assassin’s Creed Shadows 2025 · $73M Assassin's Creed Freedom Cry 2014 · $1.3M Armed with Wings: Rearmed 2017 · $122k Frenzy VR 2022 · EA · $92k Winter Ember 2022 · $74k
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Assassin’s Creed Shadows $69.99 34,953 75% 1.0M $73M (exactly $73,390,814) Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Belgrade, Ubisoft Bordeaux, Ubisoft Bucharest & Craiova, Ubisoft Chengdu, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Osaka, Ubisoft Philippines, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Singapore, Ubisoft Sofia, Ubisoft Ukraine)
Assassin's Creed Freedom Cry older $14.99 2,891 77% 87k $1.3M (exactly $1,300,083) Ubisoft Montreal
Armed with Wings: Rearmed older $9.99 406 87% 12k $122k (exactly $121,678) Sun-Studios
Frenzy VR · EA older $14.99 205 60% 6.2k $92k (exactly $92,188) Innoverse Ltd
Winter Ember older $29.99 82 58% 2.5k $74k (exactly $73,775) Sky Machine Studios
Ganryu 2 older $17.99 72 58% 2.2k $39k (exactly $38,858) Storybird Studio
Samurai: Ronin's Path $4.99 79 56% 2.4k $12k (exactly $11,826) GameHunters
FLASH OF THE BLADE X older $2.99 74 94% 2.2k $6.6k (exactly $6,638) DOSMan Games
Shadow Angel · EA older $7.99 19 47% 570 $4.6k (exactly $4,554) Bluecharm
Shadow Watcher older $6.99 21 42% 630 $4.4k (exactly $4,404) 蓝色魅力
Lightning Katana $7.99 12 100% 360 $2.9k (exactly $2,876) Juicy Pulp Games
Samurai's Odyssey · EA $7.99 6 66% 180 $1.4k (exactly $1,438) CODEUM GAMES, 11Gen
Fur and Void $9.99 2 0% 60 $599 (exactly $599) DFS
Tombs & Trials $2.99 1 100% 30 $90 (exactly $90) Logan K, Gavin D
Blade And Dragon VR $9.99 0 0% 0 $0 (exactly $0) Fori Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.