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Should I ship a Medieval Swordplay game?
Swordplay + Medieval
Of 118 developers who shipped a Medieval Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 258 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1188 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 258 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $358 (exactly $358) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.2k (exactly $1,198) |
| Top 25% | $49k (exactly $48,568) |
| Top 5% | $746k (exactly $746,027) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 118 |
| Released games | 373 |
| Announced | 258 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $7.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.
Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Swordplay; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
- Price point
- $7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.
The top 10 games average 89% positive over 184,921 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 258 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Visual NovelFair
- + Strategy RPGFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + DeckbuildingFair
- + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot
- + SamuraiPoor odds
- + JRPGPoor odds
- + Female ProtagonistPoor odds
- + FightingPoor odds
- + Co-opPoor odds
- + Base BuildingPoor odds
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance II | $59.99 | 144,558 93% | 4.3M | $260M (exactly $260,161,033) | Warhorse Studios | |
| | Kingdom Come: Deliverance | older | $29.99 | 143,303 83% | 4.3M | $129M (exactly $128,929,709) | Warhorse Studios |
| | FOR HONOR™ | older | $29.99 | 108,492 69% | 3.3M | $98M (exactly $97,610,252) | Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte) |
| | Dragon's Dogma 2 | older | $39.99 | 76,627 62% | 2.3M | $92M (exactly $91,929,412) | CAPCOM Co., Ltd. |
| | MORDHAU | older | $29.99 | 91,678 80% | 2.8M | $82M (exactly $82,482,697) | Triternion |
| | Chivalry 2 | older | $39.99 | 46,707 79% | 1.4M | $56M (exactly $56,034,388) | Torn Banner Studios |
| | Blade and Sorcery | older | $29.99 | 59,074 96% | 1.8M | $53M (exactly $53,148,878) | WarpFrog |
| | Chivalry: Medieval Warfare | older | $24.99 | 44,486 83% | 1.3M | $33M (exactly $33,351,154) | Torn Banner Studios |
| | Half Sword | · EA | $24.99 | 28,656 71% | 860k | $21M (exactly $21,483,403) | Half Sword Games |
| | SOULCALIBUR VI | older | $59.99 | 9,768 83% | 293k | $18M (exactly $17,579,470) | BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation) |
| | Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter | $24.99 | 1,851 79% | 56k | $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) | Odd Bug Studio | |
| | Labyrinth Of The Demon King | $19.99 | 2,116 92% | 63k | $1.3M (exactly $1,268,965) | J. R. Hudepohl | |
| | Grimlord | $29.99 | 927 78% | 28k | $834k (exactly $834,022) | Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd | |
| | Stonemachia | $19.99 | 1,244 95% | 37k | $746k (exactly $746,027) | Crossfall Games | |
| | LIZARDS MUST DIE 2 | $9.99 | 2,232 94% | 67k | $669k (exactly $668,930) | the Bratans, Smola Game Studio | |
| | Dungeons of Blood and Dream | $18.99 | 1,173 93% | 35k | $668k (exactly $668,258) | Lori Vornoy | |
| | Bloodthief | $19.99 | 1,017 95% | 31k | $610k (exactly $609,895) | Blargis | |
| | Gladio Mori | $15.99 | 1,147 82% | 34k | $550k (exactly $550,216) | Plebeian Studio |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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