Do I ship it?

GamesSwordplaySwordplay + Medieval

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Medieval Swordplay game?

Swordplay + Medieval

Of 118 developers who shipped a Medieval Swordplay game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 258 more are announced, ×4.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $740k, ×1188 the market median. Revenue is up 140% on the market; 258 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 140% on the market, 258 announced, ×4.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Swordplay + Medieval
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 118
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.2k → $779 → $10k → $1.9k → $836 → $1.1k → $599 (still earning) → $7.9k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Swordplay + Medieval: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 118
Bottom 30% $358 (exactly $358)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $49k (exactly $48,568)
Top 5% $746k (exactly $746,027)
Developers, 2 yr 118
Released games 373
Announced 258
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 140% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Swordplay
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Medieval
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Swordplay; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Action-Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Realistic, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 89% positive over 184,921 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $48k, 1 in 20 over $740k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 70 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 258 games are announced against 58 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Swordplay with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Visual NovelFair13 devs · median $5.7k · 10 announced
  2. + Strategy RPGFair22 devs · median $2.7k · 28 announced
  3. + IdlerFair9 devs · median $2.7k · 4 announced
  4. + Auto BattlerFair13 devs · median $1.1k · 8 announced
  5. + DeckbuildingFair11 devs · median $599 · 13 announced
  6. + Shoot 'Em UpLong shot13 devs · median $300 · 5 announced
  7. + SamuraiPoor odds12 devs · median $80k · 21 announced
  8. + JRPGPoor odds16 devs · median $14k · 22 announced
  9. + Female ProtagonistPoor odds39 devs · median $13k · 79 announced
  10. + FightingPoor odds13 devs · median $13k · 33 announced
  11. + Co-opPoor odds19 devs · median $12k · 53 announced
  12. + Base BuildingPoor odds12 devs · median $9.0k · 26 announced

All 115 pairs on the Swordplay page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Kingdom Come: Deliverance II $59.99 144,558 93% 4.3M $260M (exactly $260,161,033) Warhorse Studios
Kingdom Come: Deliverance older $29.99 143,303 83% 4.3M $129M (exactly $128,929,709) Warhorse Studios
FOR HONOR™ older $29.99 108,492 69% 3.3M $98M (exactly $97,610,252) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubiso… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Quebec, Ubisoft Toronto, Blue Byte)
Dragon's Dogma 2 older $39.99 76,627 62% 2.3M $92M (exactly $91,929,412) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
MORDHAU older $29.99 91,678 80% 2.8M $82M (exactly $82,482,697) Triternion
Chivalry 2 older $39.99 46,707 79% 1.4M $56M (exactly $56,034,388) Torn Banner Studios
Blade and Sorcery older $29.99 59,074 96% 1.8M $53M (exactly $53,148,878) WarpFrog
Chivalry: Medieval Warfare older $24.99 44,486 83% 1.3M $33M (exactly $33,351,154) Torn Banner Studios
Half Sword · EA $24.99 28,656 71% 860k $21M (exactly $21,483,403) Half Sword Games
SOULCALIBUR VI older $59.99 9,768 83% 293k $18M (exactly $17,579,470) BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corpor… (BANDAI NAMCO Studios Inc., Dimps Corporation)
Tails of Iron 2: Whiskers of Winter $24.99 1,851 79% 56k $1.4M (exactly $1,387,695) Odd Bug Studio
Labyrinth Of The Demon King $19.99 2,116 92% 63k $1.3M (exactly $1,268,965) J. R. Hudepohl
Grimlord $29.99 927 78% 28k $834k (exactly $834,022) Metalcat Interactive Co.,Ltd
Stonemachia $19.99 1,244 95% 37k $746k (exactly $746,027) Crossfall Games
LIZARDS MUST DIE 2 $9.99 2,232 94% 67k $669k (exactly $668,930) the Bratans, Smola Game Studio
Dungeons of Blood and Dream $18.99 1,173 93% 35k $668k (exactly $668,258) Lori Vornoy
Bloodthief $19.99 1,017 95% 31k $610k (exactly $609,895) Blargis
Gladio Mori $15.99 1,147 82% 34k $550k (exactly $550,216) Plebeian Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.