Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation game?

Simulation

Of 8,651 developers who shipped a Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 14,316 more are announced, ×2.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.9k, ×3.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $440; 1 in 20 cleared $520k, ×832 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 14,316 games are announced against 5,579 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 3.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 14,316 announced, ×2.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 8,651
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $3.8k → $3.6k → $2.5k → $2.8k → $2.7k → $1.8k (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 8,651
Bottom 30% $432 (exactly $432)
Median $1.9k (exactly $1,946)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $20,080)
Top 5% $523k (exactly $522,726)
Developers, 2 yr 8,651
Released games 29,960
Announced 14,316
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 961,465 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $440, median $1.9k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $520k.

3 in 10 developers made under $440. 8 in 10 of the 4,802 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 14,316 games are announced against 5,579 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Simulation

288 pairs · ranked by verdict, then medianwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Simulation + Mystery Poor odds $1.8k 758 devs
  2. Simulation + Sci-fi Poor odds $1.8k 720 devs
  3. Simulation + Snow Poor odds $1.8k 52 devs
  4. Simulation + Bullet Heaven Poor odds $1.8k 25 devs
  5. Simulation + Detective Poor odds $1.7k 239 devs
  6. Simulation + Political Sim Poor odds $1.7k 192 devs
  7. Real Time Tactics + Simulation Poor odds $1.7k 317 devs
  8. Simulation + Dinosaurs Poor odds $1.7k 38 devs
  9. Asynchronous Multiplayer + Simulation Poor odds $1.7k 61 devs
  10. Simulation + Bowling Poor odds $1.6k 14 devs
  11. Action + Simulation Poor odds $1.6k 1,661 devs
  12. Simulation + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.6k 165 devs
  13. Simulation + Transhumanism Poor odds $1.6k 21 devs
  14. Simulation + Superhero Poor odds $1.5k 13 devs
  15. Physics + Simulation Poor odds $1.5k 1,193 devs
  16. 6DOF + Simulation Poor odds $1.5k 95 devs
  17. Simulation + Spaceships Poor odds $1.5k 28 devs
  18. Simulation + Roguelike Poor odds $1.5k 491 devs
  19. Simulation + Demons Poor odds $1.5k 150 devs
  20. Combat + Simulation Poor odds $1.5k 584 devs
  21. Simulation + Time Attack Poor odds $1.4k 21 devs
  22. Simulation + Psychological Poor odds $1.4k 399 devs
  23. PvE + Simulation Poor odds $1.3k 577 devs
  24. Offroad + Simulation Poor odds $1.3k 57 devs
  25. Simulation + Perma Death Poor odds $1.3k 135 devs
  26. Simulation + Word Game Poor odds $1.3k 158 devs
  27. Football (Soccer) + Simulation Poor odds $1.3k 84 devs
  28. Racing + Simulation Poor odds $1.3k 402 devs
  29. Simulation + Space Poor odds $1.3k 467 devs
  30. Simulation + Puzzle Poor odds $1.3k 1,304 devs
  31. Simulation + Cats Poor odds $1.3k 225 devs
  32. Simulation + Gambling Poor odds $1.3k 154 devs
  33. Simulation + Trivia Poor odds $1.3k 36 devs
  34. Simulation + Robots Poor odds $1.3k 126 devs
  35. Simulation + Mechs Poor odds $1.3k 45 devs
  36. Shooter + Simulation Poor odds $1.2k 406 devs
  37. Action-Adventure + Simulation Poor odds $1.2k 702 devs
  38. Simulation + Tower Defense Poor odds $1.2k 222 devs
  39. CRPG + Simulation Poor odds $1.2k 133 devs
  40. Simulation + Futuristic Poor odds $1.2k 383 devs
  41. Simulation + Dogs Poor odds $1.2k 80 devs
  42. MMORPG + Simulation Poor odds $1.2k 11 devs
  43. Simulation + Faith Poor odds $1.2k 46 devs
  44. Simulation + Conspiracy Poor odds $1.1k 78 devs
  45. Flight + Simulation Poor odds $1.0k 211 devs
  46. Simulation + Aliens Poor odds $987 161 devs
  47. Simulation + Point & Click Poor odds $959 811 devs
  48. Third-Person Shooter + Simulation Poor odds $959 96 devs
  49. Simulation + Card Game Poor odds $958 310 devs
  50. Space Sim + Simulation Poor odds $899 270 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Rust 2018 · $1.4B DayZ 2018 · $582M No Man's Sky 2016 · $567M Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI 2016 · $497M Forza Horizon 5 2021 · $468M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
No Man's Sky older $59.99 315,054 83% 9.5M $567M (exactly $567,002,684) Hello Games
Sid Meier’s Civilization® VI older $59.99 276,113 86% 8.3M $497M (exactly $496,920,566) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
Forza Horizon 5 older $59.99 260,218 89% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,314,335) Playground Games
Euro Truck Simulator 2 older $19.99 756,984 97% 23M $454M (exactly $453,963,305) SCS Software
Hearts of Iron IV older $49.99 274,901 90% 8.2M $412M (exactly $412,269,030) Paradox Development Studio
Stardew Valley older $14.99 894,201 98% 27M $402M (exactly $402,122,190) ConcernedApe
7 Days to Die older $44.99 273,589 87% 8.2M $369M (exactly $369,263,073) The Fun Pimps
The Forest older $19.99 581,431 95% 17M $349M (exactly $348,684,171) Endnight Games Ltd
EA SPORTS FC™ 26 $69.99 99,773 50% 3.0M $209M (exactly $209,493,368) EA Canada, EA Romania
Forza Horizon 6 $69.99 86,730 82% 2.6M $182M (exactly $182,106,981) Playground Games
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition $59.99 70,073 78% 2.1M $126M (exactly $126,110,378) Asobo Studio
Scrap Mechanic $28.99 109,429 92% 3.3M $95M (exactly $95,170,401) Axolot Games
Sid Meier's Civilization VII $69.99 44,789 48% 1.3M $94M (exactly $94,043,463) Firaxis Games
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
MiSide $14.99 122,007 97% 3.7M $55M (exactly $54,866,548) AIHASTO
NBA 2K26 $69.99 25,651 66% 770k $54M (exactly $53,859,405) Visual Concepts

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.