Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Faith

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Faith Simulation game?

Simulation + Faith

Of 46 developers who shipped a Faith Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 66 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×251 the market median. Revenue is up 200% on the market; 66 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 200% on the market, 66 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Faith
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 46
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $449 → $6.9k → $4.6k → $2.0k → $599 → $4.0k → $3.6k (still earning) → $239 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Faith: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 46
Bottom 30% $239 (exactly $239)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,188)
Top 25% $9.9k (exactly $9,890)
Top 5% $158k (exactly $157,941)
Developers, 2 yr 46
Released games 105
Announced 66
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $3.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 200% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Faith
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Resource Management, Choices Matter, Life Sim
Price point
$3.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $3.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 3,692 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $9.8k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 9 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 66 games are announced against 23 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Touhou Mystia's Izakaya older $5.99 29,517 98% 886k $5.3M (exactly $5,304,205) 二色幽紫蝶, Re零同人社
Honey, I Joined a Cult older $25.99 1,380 73% 41k $1.1M (exactly $1,075,986) Sole Survivor Games
I Am Jesus Christ $19.99 1,486 87% 45k $891k (exactly $891,154) Space Boat Studios
Touhou Ibunseki - Ayaria Dawn: ReCreation older $18.99 1,384 84% 42k $788k (exactly $788,465) Team L.U.R.Id Glow
Fantasy Maiden Wars - DREAM OF THE STRAY DREAMER - $34.99 582 98% 17k $611k (exactly $610,925) さんぼん堂
Sinner Maker · EA $9.66 545 91% 16k $158k (exactly $157,941) Pantokrator
The Unholy Priest $9.99 370 72% 11k $111k (exactly $110,889) Grejuva
Sisters in Sin 🔞 $14.99 165 75% 5.0k $74k (exactly $74,200) Lewd Star
Holy Whore Emily $11.99 182 75% 5.5k $65k (exactly $65,465) Asami
Herbals tycoon · EA $9.99 123 76% 3.7k $37k (exactly $36,863) Orange Paper Studio
Touhou Farming ~ Minoriko's Homestead Harvest · EA $11.99 67 95% 2.0k $24k (exactly $24,100) Studio Hexeye
Religion inc. $4.99 128 72% 3.8k $19k (exactly $19,162) GameFirst
The people of Sea, Sun & Salt $9.99 44 100% 1.3k $13k (exactly $13,187) Emerick Gibson

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.