Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Psychological

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Psychological Simulation game?

Simulation + Psychological

Of 399 developers who shipped a Psychological Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 563 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $76k, ×122 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 563 games are announced against 251 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 563 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Psychological
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 399
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.7k → $2.3k → $3.4k → $2.7k → $3.4k → $2.2k → $1.2k (still earning) → $475 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Psychological: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 399
Bottom 30% $359 (exactly $359)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,436)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,073)
Top 5% $77k (exactly $76,796)
Developers, 2 yr 399
Released games 839
Announced 563
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Psychological
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Walking Simulator, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $9.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $9.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 67,304 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $76k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 206 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 563 games are announced against 251 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
This War of Mine older $19.99 81,804 93% 2.5M $49M (exactly $49,057,859) 11 bit studios
DREDGE older $24.99 47,624 95% 1.4M $36M (exactly $35,703,713) Black Salt Games
No, I'm not a Human $14.99 27,222 93% 817k $12M (exactly $12,241,733) Trioskaz
Buckshot Roulette older $2.99 110,042 95% 3.3M $9.9M (exactly $9,870,767) Mike Klubnika
CloverPit $9.99 24,710 90% 741k $7.4M (exactly $7,405,587) Panik Arcade
Digimon Survive older $59.99 3,124 78% 94k $5.6M (exactly $5,622,263) HYDE, Inc.
GNOSIA older $24.99 4,855 93% 146k $3.6M (exactly $3,639,794) Petit Depotto
Hypnospace Outlaw older $19.99 4,824 96% 145k $2.9M (exactly $2,892,953) Tendershoot, Michael Lasch, ThatWhichIs… (Tendershoot, Michael Lasch, ThatWhichIs Media)
Pathologic 3 $34.99 2,528 80% 76k $2.7M (exactly $2,653,642) Ice-Pick Lodge
KinitoPET older $5.99 13,438 92% 403k $2.4M (exactly $2,414,809) troy_en
Yunyun Syndrome!? Rhythm Psychosis $16.99 3,974 91% 119k $2.0M (exactly $2,025,548) Alliance Arts, WHO YOU
Static Dread: The Lighthouse $10.90 1,394 90% 42k $456k (exactly $455,838) solarsuit.games
and Roger $4.99 2,703 95% 81k $405k (exactly $404,639) TearyHand Studio
While We Wait Here $4.99 2,344 89% 70k $351k (exactly $350,897) Bad Vices Games
Soul Touch $9.99 1,007 97% 30k $302k (exactly $301,798) URAYAHA.TECH
I Hate My Waifu Streamer $9.99 891 92% 27k $267k (exactly $267,033) Nozori Games
Cellveillance $15.99 531 85% 16k $255k (exactly $254,721) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.