Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Bullet Heaven

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Bullet Heaven Simulation game?

Simulation + Bullet Heaven

Of 25 developers who shipped a Bullet Heaven Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 36 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $130k, ×215 the market median. Revenue is down 95% on the market; 36 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 95% on the market, 36 announced, ×1.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Bullet Heaven
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $315k → $58k → $299 (still earning) → $1.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Bullet Heaven: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.8k (exactly $1,796)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $47,900)
Top 5% $135k (exactly $134,910)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 33
Announced 36
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 95% on the market, supply 320% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Bullet Heaven
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Bullet Heaven; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Incremental, Idler
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $6.99 or above
Art
7 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Pixel Graphics, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $6.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 6,227 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.8k, 1 in 4 over $47k, 1 in 20 over $130k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. None of the 5 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 36 games are announced against 21 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Be My Horde · EA older $9.99 2,052 85% 62k $615k (exactly $614,984) Polished Games
Astro Prospector $4.99 3,223 91% 97k $482k (exactly $482,483) Incrementalist
Necrosmith older $2.99 4,885 85% 147k $438k (exactly $438,185) Alawar
Necrosmith 2 older $7.99 1,315 77% 39k $315k (exactly $315,206) Alawar
Gigantes Ex Machina · EA $14.99 300 84% 9.0k $135k (exactly $134,910) AcrylByte, SEO INSEOK
Wireworks $6.99 614 89% 18k $129k (exactly $128,756) JJJ
Rock Crusher $6.99 352 84% 11k $74k (exactly $73,814) Mini Fun Games
Game of Grass $6.99 275 84% 8.3k $58k (exactly $57,668) Hipsterdufus
All Aboard! The Train Defense Express $4.99 379 84% 11k $57k (exactly $56,736) Likadev
DEFRAG $2.99 534 93% 16k $48k (exactly $47,900) BlueDot Studio
Antivirus PROTOCOL $4.99 313 87% 9.4k $47k (exactly $46,856) FIREHIVE Studio
ArmorSim · EA $18.99 77 57% 2.3k $44k (exactly $43,867) Timerlan Galimov
Incremental Infinity $4.99 160 58% 4.8k $24k (exactly $23,952) Rablo Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.