Do I ship it?

Games › Football (Soccer) › Football (Soccer) + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Football (Soccer) game?

Football (Soccer) + Simulation

Of 84 developers who shipped a Simulation Football (Soccer) game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 116 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×0.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $930k, ×627 the market median. Revenue is down 40% on the market; 116 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 40% on the market, 116 announced, ×1.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Football (Soccer) + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 84
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $1.2k → $449 → $2.7k → $3.5k → $1.5k (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Football (Soccer) + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 84
Bottom 30% $240 (exactly $240)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,336)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,845)
Top 5% $940k (exactly $939,730)
Developers, 2 yr 84
Released games 204
Announced 116
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 40% on the market, supply 130% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Football (Soccer)
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Football (Soccer), Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sports, Character Customization, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 57% positive over 187,279 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $930k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 29 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 116 games are announced against 60 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Football (Soccer) with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Life SimFair10 devs · median $10k · 16 announced
  2. + EconomyFair21 devs · median $6.8k · 29 announced
  3. + Local MultiplayerLong shot32 devs · median $899 · 40 announced
  4. + Local Co-OpLong shot17 devs · median $839 · 22 announced
  5. + Football (American)Long shot15 devs · median $719 · 9 announced
  6. + ArcadeLong shot64 devs · median $539 · 84 announced
  7. + 4 Player LocalPoor odds14 devs · median $15k · 27 announced
  8. + Character CustomizationPoor odds32 devs · median $3.8k · 54 announced
  9. + Turn-Based TacticsPoor odds14 devs · median $3.6k · 30 announced
  10. + AdventurePoor odds15 devs · median $3.3k · 13 announced
  11. + Resource ManagementPoor odds15 devs · median $3.1k · 30 announced
  12. + ManagementPoor odds47 devs · median $2.7k · 83 announced

All 32 pairs on the Football (Soccer) page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

EA SPORTS FC™ 26 2025 · $209M Football Manager 26 2025 · $39M REMATCH 2025 · $36M Pro Soccer Online 2025 · $3.5M Football, Tactics & Glory 2018 · $3.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
EA SPORTS FC™ 26 $69.99 99,773 50% 3.0M $209M (exactly $209,493,368) EA Canada, EA Romania
Football Manager 26 $59.99 21,490 37% 645k $39M (exactly $38,675,553) Sports Interactive
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
Pro Soccer Online $4.99 23,241 82% 697k $3.5M (exactly $3,479,178) Skywall Studios LLC
Football, Tactics & Glory older $24.99 3,998 87% 120k $3.0M (exactly $2,997,301) Creoteam
Football Life Simulator · EA $19.99 1,567 68% 47k $940k (exactly $939,730) Ludu Arts
WE ARE FOOTBALL 2024 older $39.99 751 79% 23k $901k (exactly $900,975) Winning Streak Games GmbH
WE ARE FOOTBALL older $24.99 839 75% 25k $629k (exactly $628,998) Winning Streak Games
Pixel Cup Soccer - Ultimate Edition older $16.99 876 83% 26k $446k (exactly $446,497) BATOVI Games
GOAL! The Club Manager · EA older $29.99 364 33% 11k $327k (exactly $327,491) 2tainment
NUTMEG! A Nostalgic Deckbuilding Football Manager $24.99 378 89% 11k $283k (exactly $283,387) Sumo Digital, Sumo Digital Academy
Copa City: Matchday Manager $24.99 247 72% 7.4k $185k (exactly $185,176) Triple Espresso S.A.
Motion Soccer PRO $19.99 223 79% 6.7k $134k (exactly $133,733) Ivanovich Games
Football Academy Manager · EA $14.99 278 91% 8.3k $125k (exactly $125,017) Hubi
Fantasista Asuka $19.99 177 87% 5.3k $106k (exactly $106,147) qureate, Orgesta Inc.

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.