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Should I ship a PvE Simulation game?
PvE + Simulation
Of 577 developers who shipped a PvE Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,043 more are announced, ×3.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $490k, ×787 the market median. Revenue is down 25% on the market; 1,043 games are announced against 349 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,349) |
| Top 25% | $13k (exactly $13,187) |
| Top 5% | $494k (exactly $494,276) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 577 |
| Released games | 1,361 |
| Announced | 1,043 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.59 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 25% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- PvE
- effort 6 / 10 · low · online co-op against AI still needs the whole netcode stack
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- PvE, Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Strategy
- Price point
- $6.59 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.59.
The top 10 games average 74% positive over 180,151 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 295 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,043 games are announced against 349 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.0 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
PvE with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dating SimFair
- + IdlerFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + TypingFair
- + Extraction ShooterPoor odds
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
- + HeistPoor odds
- + MMORPGPoor odds
- + Real-TimePoor odds
- + NavalPoor odds
- + SpaceshipsPoor odds
- + MarsPoor odds
Comparable games
Squad 2020 · $217M 
PAYDAY 2 2013 · $134M 
Escape from Tarkov 2025 · $84M 
Gray Zone Warfare 2024 · EA · $83M 
Arma Reforger 2023 · $62M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Squad | older | $39.99 | 180,505 82% | 5.4M | $217M (exactly $216,551,848) | Offworld |
| | PAYDAY 2 | older | $9.99 | 445,531 89% | 13M | $134M (exactly $133,525,641) | OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games) |
| | Escape from Tarkov | $49.99 | 55,824 49% | 1.7M | $84M (exactly $83,719,253) | Battlestate Games | |
| | Gray Zone Warfare | · EA older | $39.99 | 69,146 72% | 2.1M | $83M (exactly $82,954,456) | MADFINGER Games, a.s. |
| | Arma Reforger | older | $39.99 | 51,613 80% | 1.5M | $62M (exactly $61,920,116) | Bohemia Interactive |
 | Space Engineers | older | $19.99 | 100,533 89% | 3.0M | $60M (exactly $60,289,640) | Keen Software House |
 | Northgard: Definitive Edition | older | $34.99 | 54,478 85% | 1.6M | $57M (exactly $57,185,557) | Shiro Games |
 | Abiotic Factor | $34.99 | 42,075 95% | 1.3M | $44M (exactly $44,166,128) | Deep Field Games | |
 | SnowRunner | older | $29.99 | 46,343 90% | 1.4M | $42M (exactly $41,694,797) | Saber Interactive |
 | Undisputed | $49.99 | 19,190 60% | 576k | $29M (exactly $28,779,243) | Steel City Interactive | |
 | Going Medieval | $29.99 | 17,032 88% | 511k | $15M (exactly $15,323,690) | Foxy Voxel | |
 | WolfQuest: Anniversary Edition | $29.99 | 11,511 97% | 345k | $10M (exactly $10,356,447) | eduweb | |
 | Diplomacy is Not an Option | $29.99 | 10,904 85% | 327k | $9.8M (exactly $9,810,329) | Door 407 | |
 | Pioneers of Pagonia | $34.99 | 4,794 81% | 144k | $5.0M (exactly $5,032,262) | Envision Entertainment | |
 | MechWarrior 5: Clans | $29.99 | 5,565 74% | 167k | $5.0M (exactly $5,006,830) | Piranha Games Inc. | |
 | Void Crew | $24.99 | 6,573 86% | 197k | $4.9M (exactly $4,927,778) | Hutlihut Games | |
 | Over The Top: WWI | $19.14 | 6,683 84% | 200k | $3.8M (exactly $3,837,379) | Flying Squirrel Entertainment |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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