Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Transhumanism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transhumanist Simulation game?

Simulation + Transhumanism

Of 21 developers who shipped a Transhumanist Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 37 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.6k, ×2.6 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×521 the market median. Revenue is up 750% on the market; 37 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 750% on the market, 37 announced, ×2.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Transhumanism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 21
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $599 → $600 → $2.5k → $1.1k → $200k → $5.4k (still earning) → $0 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Transhumanism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 21
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.6k (exactly $1,617)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,576)
Top 5% $327k (exactly $326,958)
Developers, 2 yr 21
Released games 49
Announced 37
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 750% on the market, supply 150% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Transhumanism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Multiple Endings, RPG, Action
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.95 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.95 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 96% positive over 4,313 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.6k, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. All of the 7 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 37 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
VA-11 Hall-A: Cyberpunk Bartender Action older $14.99 33,838 97% 1.0M $15M (exactly $15,216,949) Sukeban Games
while True: learn() older $12.99 7,350 91% 221k $2.9M (exactly $2,864,295) Luden.io
Ashes of the Singularity: Escalation older $29.99 2,704 76% 81k $2.4M (exactly $2,432,789) Stardock Entertainment, Oxide Games
Horsey Game $9.99 2,911 97% 87k $872k (exactly $872,427) Captain Games
Paradise Lost older $14.99 1,469 67% 44k $661k (exactly $660,609) PolyAmorous
Deadeye Deepfake Simulacrum $12.99 839 98% 25k $327k (exactly $326,958) nodayshalleraseyou
Creature Lab older $19.99 343 51% 10k $206k (exactly $205,697) Image Power S.A.
Ambrosia Sky $24.99 267 89% 8.0k $200k (exactly $200,170) Soft Rains, Blackbird Interactive
Punk Wars older $19.99 99 55% 3.0k $59k (exactly $59,370) Strategy Forge S.A.
KUUKIYOMI: Consider It World - Thailand Ver. $9.99 107 98% 3.2k $32k (exactly $32,068) Urnique Studio
how to kill a fly [ H2KAF ] $9.99 71 97% 2.1k $21k (exactly $21,279) Radtel Collective
Holonoptic $19.95 16 93% 480 $9.6k (exactly $9,576) Glazial
Terraforming Titans $5.00 58 94% 1.7k $8.7k (exactly $8,700) terraforming.titans
New Earth Saga of the New Gods $9.99 18 55% 540 $5.4k (exactly $5,395) FPCGameSoftware
Gas Station Story $8.99 14 92% 420 $3.8k (exactly $3,776) enzi
Sky Resort 2 $9.99 12 75% 360 $3.6k (exactly $3,596) CrazySky3D

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.