Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Superhero

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Superhero Simulation game?

Simulation + Superhero

Only 13 developers shipped a Superhero Simulation game in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, Superhero Simulator, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 30 more are announced, ×3.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, level with the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $150k, ×104 the market median. Revenue is up 145% on the market; 30 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 145% on the market, 30 announced, ×3.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Superhero
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 13
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.8k → $89 → $6.6k → $449 → $6.3k → $898 (still earning) → $3.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Superhero: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 13
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,525)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,296)
Top 5% $156k (exactly $155,800)
Developers, 2 yr 13
Released games 69
Announced 30
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 145% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 6%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Superhero
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Simulation
Price point
$7.99 typical
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 10 games average 74% positive over 991 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $150k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 8 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 30 games are announced against 8 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Chroma Squad older $14.99 2,913 95% 87k $1.3M (exactly $1,309,976) Behold Studios
Megaton Rainfall older $15.99 2,155 71% 65k $1.0M (exactly $1,033,754) Pentadimensional Games, SL
Amazing Frog? 2 · EA older $19.99 726 77% 22k $435k (exactly $435,382) Fayju
Superfly older $14.99 520 90% 16k $234k (exactly $233,844) Loco Motion Devs
Meteor World Actor: Badge & Dagger older $17.99 355 88% 11k $192k (exactly $191,593) Heliodor
Superhero Simulator · EA $5.99 867 73% 26k $156k (exactly $155,800) mightyraccoon! Studios
Sentinels of Freedom older $24.99 169 66% 5.1k $127k (exactly $126,699) Underbite Games
Smelter older $19.99 165 64% 5.0k $99k (exactly $98,950) X PLUS Co., Ltd.
Magical Mic Duel: Senpai, Hear My Spell · EA older $6.99 462 90% 14k $97k (exactly $96,881) ReLU Games, Inc.
PumPum older $3.99 693 74% 21k $83k (exactly $82,952) Shmoops Games
The Magical girl Childhood friend lives Next Door $9.99 39 82% 1.2k $12k (exactly $11,688) Waving.Inc
Man of Steal (Nymphs) $14.99 20 50% 600 $9.0k (exactly $8,994) Nymphs
Kebabstar 🌯⭐ · EA $14.99 14 78% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Zeybek
Spectacular Team: Assemble $7.99 13 100% 390 $3.1k (exactly $3,116) Sengi Games
Comic Store Simulator · EA $9.99 7 71% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) Driftstone Digital
Evil Superhero Simulator · EA $2.99 17 88% 510 $1.5k (exactly $1,525) Superhero Central
SuperEats $4.99 6 100% 180 $898 (exactly $898) PoisonGames
Outer Space Bar $8.99 3 66% 90 $809 (exactly $809) OZNA STUDIO
A Night With: SuperHero $2.99 5 100% 150 $449 (exactly $449) Naughty Narratives

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.