Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Spaceships

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spaceship Simulation game?

Simulation + Spaceships

Of 28 developers who shipped a Spaceship Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 39 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $390; 1 in 20 cleared $660k, ×1058 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 39 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 39 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Spaceships
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 28
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $386 → $539 → $719 → $1.5k → $6.3k → $899 (still earning) → $4.0k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Spaceships: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 28
Bottom 30% $386 (exactly $386)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,499)
Top 25% $22k (exactly $21,923)
Top 5% $664k (exactly $664,468)
Developers, 2 yr 28
Released games 86
Announced 39
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Spaceships
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Building, Management
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 77% positive over 5,723 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $390, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $21k, 1 in 20 over $660k.

3 in 10 developers made under $390. 7 in 10 of the 15 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 39 games are announced against 14 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS™: Squadrons older $39.99 25,086 66% 753k $30M (exactly $30,095,674) MOTIVE
Avorion older $24.99 13,001 90% 390k $9.7M (exactly $9,746,850) Boxelware
Cosmoteer: Starship Architect & Commander · EA older $19.99 12,013 94% 360k $7.2M (exactly $7,204,196) Walternate Realities
Spaceflight Simulator · EA older $14.99 9,431 96% 283k $4.2M (exactly $4,241,121) Team Curiosity ✦
Starpoint Gemini Warlords older $34.99 3,076 72% 92k $3.2M (exactly $3,228,877) Little Green Men Games
Starpoint Gemini 2 older $34.99 3,021 70% 91k $3.2M (exactly $3,171,144) Little Green Men Games
PULSAR: Lost Colony older $19.99 4,409 89% 132k $2.6M (exactly $2,644,077) Leafy Games
Ostranauts $19.99 3,137 77% 94k $1.9M (exactly $1,881,259) Blue Bottle Games
Starship EVO · EA older $24.99 1,322 82% 40k $991k (exactly $991,103) Moonfire Entertainment
Shortest Trip to Earth older $25.99 1,257 76% 38k $980k (exactly $980,083) Interactive Fate
Uncle Chop's Rocket Shop $19.99 1,108 84% 33k $664k (exactly $664,468) Beard Envy
Stellar Settlers: Space Base Builder $11.99 744 69% 22k $268k (exactly $267,617) Tinymice Entertainment
BattleGroupVR2 · EA $24.99 209 85% 6.3k $157k (exactly $156,687) SpaceOwl Games
Clonizer $14.99 146 82% 4.4k $66k (exactly $65,656) Juicy Plume
LUST Company 👾 $9.99 155 65% 4.7k $46k (exactly $46,454) Taboo Tales 💘
Desk Space: Idle Spacefleet clicker $5.99 122 70% 3.7k $22k (exactly $21,923) Shotgun Anaconda
Stardust Exile $14.99 44 70% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Apseren
eXoSpace Combat Engineer · EA $14.99 44 81% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Fantastimaker
Leaks In Space · EA $14.99 14 71% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Frostech Game Studio

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.