Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Word Game

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Word Game Simulation game?

Simulation + Word Game

Of 158 developers who shipped a Word Game Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 205 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×449 the market median. Revenue is up 70% on the market; 205 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 70% on the market, 205 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Word Game
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 158
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.5k → $1.1k → $1.0k → $1.7k → $1.4k → $1.8k → $1.3k (still earning) → $270 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Word Game: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 158
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,346)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,869)
Top 5% $282k (exactly $282,143)
Developers, 2 yr 158
Released games 421
Announced 205
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 70% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Word Game
effort 1 / 10 · high · dictionary logic and simple UI

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation, Word Game; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Visual Novel, Interactive Fiction
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 2D, Story Rich, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 29,815 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 7 in 10 of the 86 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 205 games are announced against 92 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Cyber Manhunt older $9.99 14,520 92% 436k $4.4M (exactly $4,351,644) Aluba Van+
Mandate Of Heaven $14.99 5,446 91% 163k $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) 木焱工作室
Sweet Home $7.99 9,910 94% 297k $2.4M (exactly $2,375,427) 开心茶房
Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator $12.99 5,191 92% 156k $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) Aluba Van+
Retirement Simulator · EA older $13.99 3,757 34% 113k $1.6M (exactly $1,576,813) DoubleThink Studio
Our End of the World older $9.99 4,453 79% 134k $1.3M (exactly $1,334,564) 橘子班, 大好网
风信楼 older $11.99 3,423 94% 103k $1.2M (exactly $1,231,253) Pingfang Games
Wordle older $30.62 1,147 80% 34k $1.1M (exactly $1,053,634) PreoNus Games
CaseCracker older $9.99 3,314 89% 99k $993k (exactly $993,206) BlackRobe
S4U: CITYPUNK 2011 AND LOVE PUNCH $13.99 2,324 90% 70k $975k (exactly $975,383) U0U Games
V-LOVER! $10.99 1,439 89% 43k $474k (exactly $474,438) Hentopia
Noun Town Language Learning $19.99 708 84% 21k $425k (exactly $424,588) SUPER HYPER MEGA
xiuzhen idle $5.99 2,313 79% 69k $416k (exactly $415,646) 游戏养家工作室
Mr Right Simulator $12.99 724 94% 22k $282k (exactly $282,143) 男神模拟器工作室
错过的暑假可以放第二次吗? $6.99 1,229 99% 37k $258k (exactly $257,721) 麻溜完结制作组
Cellveillance $15.99 531 85% 16k $255k (exactly $254,721) KARMAGAME HK LIMITED

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.