Do I ship it?

Games › CRPG › CRPG + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation CRPG?

CRPG + Simulation

Of 133 developers who shipped a Simulation CRPG in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 191 more are announced, ×2.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×0.8 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $390k, ×261 the market median. Revenue is down 50% on the market; 191 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 0.8 times the market baseline, revenue down 50% on the market, 191 announced, ×2.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
CRPG + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 133
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $839 → $4.2k → $4.8k → $3.1k → $2.2k → $1.5k → $629 (still earning) → $629 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for CRPG + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 133
Bottom 30% $269 (exactly $269)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $23k (exactly $23,388)
Top 5% $392k (exactly $391,713)
Developers, 2 yr 133
Released games 331
Announced 191
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 50% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 9%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

CRPG
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
CRPG, Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry RPG, Immersive Sim, Multiple Endings
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 43,409 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $270, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $23k, 1 in 20 over $390k.

3 in 10 developers made under $270. 7 in 10 of the 69 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 191 games are announced against 79 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

CRPG with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Martial ArtsFair13 devs · median $26k · 14 announced
  2. + Female ProtagonistFair84 devs · median $2.4k · 95 announced
  3. + TabletopFair22 devs · median $1.9k · 26 announced
  4. + Traditional RoguelikeFair12 devs · median $1.9k · 13 announced
  5. + 2D PlatformerFair62 devs · median $1.2k · 76 announced
  6. + IncrementalLong shot32 devs · median $449 · 27 announced
  7. + FMVPoor odds16 devs · median $58k · 14 announced
  8. + Card BattlerPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 28 announced
  9. + Grid-Based MovementPoor odds26 devs · median $23k · 46 announced
  10. + SpacePoor odds11 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  11. + Online Co-OpPoor odds13 devs · median $22k · 23 announced
  12. + Souls-likePoor odds12 devs · median $20k · 24 announced

All 123 pairs on the CRPG page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut 2023 · $17M Big Ambitions 2026 · $11M Back to the Dawn 2025 · $6.2M ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game 2018 · $4.5M Romantic Escapades 2025 · $3.4M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Slay the Princess — The Pristine Cut older $17.99 31,885 96% 957k $17M (exactly $17,208,334) Black Tabby Games
Big Ambitions $25.99 14,003 92% 420k $11M (exactly $10,918,139) Hovgaard Games
Back to the Dawn $23.99 8,555 94% 257k $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) Metal Head Games
ATOM RPG: Post-apocalyptic indie game older $14.99 9,991 84% 300k $4.5M (exactly $4,492,953) AtomTeam
Romantic Escapades $19.99 5,587 94% 168k $3.4M (exactly $3,350,524) 蠑螈
侠客风云传(Tale of Wuxia) older $16.99 6,501 76% 195k $3.3M (exactly $3,313,560) Heluo Studio
TaleSpire · EA older $24.99 4,391 89% 132k $3.3M (exactly $3,291,933) Bouncyrock Entertainment
Blackthorn Arena older $24.99 3,477 69% 104k $2.6M (exactly $2,606,707) PersonaeGame Studio
Mandate Of Heaven $14.99 5,446 91% 163k $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) 木焱工作室
Immortal Life older $16.99 3,853 79% 116k $2.0M (exactly $1,963,874) YiFang Studio
Blackthorn Arena: Reforged $24.99 882 66% 26k $661k (exactly $661,235) PersonaeGame Studio
Hua Manlou $10.99 1,481 97% 44k $488k (exactly $488,286) 初域游戏
Halcyon Days at Taoyuan $11.99 1,089 89% 33k $392k (exactly $391,713) BotanX
Handyman Fantasy $7.99 1,607 95% 48k $385k (exactly $385,198) SupaShinKen Studio
消失的航班，还有她她她！Lost in the secret! $19.99 602 89% 18k $361k (exactly $361,019) Humongous Pictures
Your Mom $1.99 4,157 95% 125k $248k (exactly $248,173) Mom Game

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.