Games › Simulation › Simulation + Mystery
Should I ship a Mystery Simulation game?
Simulation + Mystery
Of 758 developers who shipped a Mystery Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,166 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.8k, ×2.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $540; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×526 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 1,166 games are announced against 460 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $537 (exactly $537) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.8k (exactly $1,797) |
| Top 25% | $12k (exactly $11,691) |
| Top 5% | $330k (exactly $330,113) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 758 |
| Released games | 1,643 |
| Announced | 1,166 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Mystery
- effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration, Multiple Endings
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Story Rich, Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 101,275 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $540. 8 in 10 of the 377 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,166 games are announced against 460 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
Outer Wilds 2020 · $67M 
DREDGE 2023 · $36M 
The Talos Principle 2014 · $26M 
Graveyard Keeper 2018 · $24M 
Blue Prince 2025 · $16M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Outer Wilds | older | $24.99 | 89,506 95% | 2.7M | $67M (exactly $67,102,648) | Mobius Digital |
| | DREDGE | older | $24.99 | 47,624 95% | 1.4M | $36M (exactly $35,703,713) | Black Salt Games |
| | The Talos Principle | older | $29.99 | 29,237 95% | 877k | $26M (exactly $26,304,529) | Croteam |
| | Graveyard Keeper | older | $19.99 | 39,547 86% | 1.2M | $24M (exactly $23,716,336) | Lazy Bear Games |
| | Blue Prince | $29.99 | 17,498 85% | 525k | $16M (exactly $15,742,951) | Dogubomb | |
 | No, I'm not a Human | $14.99 | 27,222 93% | 817k | $12M (exactly $12,241,733) | Trioskaz | |
 | Escape Simulator | older | $19.99 | 16,496 94% | 495k | $9.9M (exactly $9,892,651) | Pine Studio |
 | Chained Together | older | $4.99 | 54,747 89% | 1.6M | $8.2M (exactly $8,195,626) | Anegar Games, Lab42 |
 | Strange Horticulture | older | $15.99 | 14,867 94% | 446k | $7.1M (exactly $7,131,700) | Bad Viking |
 | Unheard - Voices of Crime | older | $6.99 | 30,978 95% | 929k | $6.5M (exactly $6,496,087) | NEXT Studios |
 | Back to the Dawn | $23.99 | 8,555 94% | 257k | $6.2M (exactly $6,157,034) | Metal Head Games | |
 | Shift At Midnight | $9.99 | 10,147 88% | 304k | $3.0M (exactly $3,041,056) | Bun Muen | |
 | A Game About Digging A Hole™ | $4.99 | 18,785 89% | 564k | $2.8M (exactly $2,812,114) | DoubleBee | |
 | Techtonica | $29.99 | 3,076 64% | 92k | $2.8M (exactly $2,767,477) | Fire Hose Games | |
 | Whisper of the House | $14.99 | 5,344 96% | 160k | $2.4M (exactly $2,403,197) | 元气弹工作室(GD Studio) | |
 | Cyber Manhunt 2: New World - The Hacking Simulator | $12.99 | 5,191 92% | 156k | $2.0M (exactly $2,022,933) | Aluba Van+ | |
 | Strange Antiquities | $17.99 | 3,288 95% | 99k | $1.8M (exactly $1,774,534) | Bad Viking | |
 | PARANORMASIGHT: The Mermaid's Curse | $24.99 | 2,169 95% | 65k | $1.6M (exactly $1,626,099) | Square Enix |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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