Games › Simulation › Simulation + Puzzle
Should I ship a Puzzle Simulation game?
Simulation + Puzzle
Of 1,304 developers who shipped a Puzzle Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,660 more are announced, ×2.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×382 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 1,660 games are announced against 799 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $299 (exactly $299) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.3k (exactly $1,258) |
| Top 25% | $9.0k (exactly $8,963) |
| Top 5% | $240k (exactly $239,920) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 1,304 |
| Released games | 4,117 |
| Announced | 1,660 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $4.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 8%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
- Puzzle
- effort 2 / 10 · high · discrete rules, levels are data
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Simulation, Puzzle; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration
- Price point
- $4.99 typical · top 25% priced $14.99 or above
- Art
- 3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $14.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.
The top 10 games average 94% positive over 268,735 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 686 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,660 games are announced against 799 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.1 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Simulation with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FMVStrong odds
- + Escape RoomStrong odds
- + World War IFair
- + Job SimulatorFair
- + LGBTQ+Fair
- + PinballFair
- + Female ProtagonistFair
- + BirdsFair
- + Artificial IntelligenceFair
- + MusicFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + ProgrammingFair
Comparable games
Teardown 2022 · $114M 
Human Fall Flat 2016 · $105M 
Outer Wilds 2020 · $67M 
MiSide 2024 · $55M 
BONEWORKS 2019 · $31M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Teardown | older | $29.99 | 126,563 95% | 3.8M | $114M (exactly $113,868,731) | Tuxedo Labs |
| | Human Fall Flat | older | $19.99 | 174,835 94% | 5.2M | $105M (exactly $104,848,549) | No Brakes Games |
| | Outer Wilds | older | $24.99 | 89,506 95% | 2.7M | $67M (exactly $67,102,648) | Mobius Digital |
| | MiSide | $14.99 | 122,007 97% | 3.7M | $55M (exactly $54,866,548) | AIHASTO | |
| | BONEWORKS | older | $29.99 | 34,141 92% | 1.0M | $31M (exactly $30,716,658) | Stress Level Zero |
 | Car Mechanic Simulator 2021 | older | $24.99 | 36,950 95% | 1.1M | $28M (exactly $27,701,415) | Red Dot Games |
 | The Talos Principle | older | $29.99 | 29,237 95% | 877k | $26M (exactly $26,304,529) | Croteam |
 | PC Building Simulator | older | $19.99 | 42,153 93% | 1.3M | $25M (exactly $25,279,154) | Claudiu Kiss, The Irregular Corporation |
 | Papers, Please | older | $9.99 | 73,406 97% | 2.2M | $22M (exactly $21,999,778) | Lucas Pope |
 | Besiege | older | $14.99 | 48,045 95% | 1.4M | $22M (exactly $21,605,836) | Spiderling Studios |
 | Blue Prince | $29.99 | 17,498 85% | 525k | $16M (exactly $15,742,951) | Dogubomb | |
 | shapez 2 - Factory | $29.99 | 13,846 96% | 415k | $12M (exactly $12,457,246) | tobspr Games | |
 | Hello Kitty Island Adventure | $39.99 | 9,637 93% | 289k | $12M (exactly $11,561,509) | Sunblink | |
 | Liar's Bar | · EA | $6.99 | 48,708 89% | 1.5M | $10M (exactly $10,214,068) | Curve Animation |
 | Little Witch in the Woods | $19.99 | 11,691 89% | 351k | $7.0M (exactly $7,011,093) | SUNNY SIDE UP | |
 | Librarian: Tidy Up the Arcane Library! | $5.99 | 24,497 94% | 735k | $4.4M (exactly $4,402,111) | ArtRising | |
 | Cat Mail Co. | $14.99 | 6,289 92% | 189k | $2.8M (exactly $2,828,163) | Maracas Studio | |
 | The Farmer Was Replaced | $9.99 | 9,116 95% | 273k | $2.7M (exactly $2,732,065) | Timon Herzog | |
 | Mandate Of Heaven | $14.99 | 5,446 91% | 163k | $2.4M (exactly $2,449,066) | 木焱工作室 |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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