Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Dogs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dog Simulation game?

Simulation + Dogs

Of 80 developers who shipped a Dog Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 96 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $560k, ×901 the market median. Revenue is down 65% on the market; 96 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue down 65% on the market, 96 announced, ×1.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Dogs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 80
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $49k → $20k → $5.4k → $599 → $5.7k → $4.2k → $1.1k (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Dogs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 80
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $12,449)
Top 5% $566k (exactly $565,911)
Developers, 2 yr 80
Released games 211
Announced 96
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 65% on the market, supply 95% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dogs
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Life Sim, Adventure, Building
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Relaxing, Cute, Colorful
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 10,688 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $12k, 1 in 20 over $560k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 36 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 96 games are announced against 53 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Wobbledogs older $19.99 13,770 98% 413k $8.3M (exactly $8,257,869) Animal Uprising
Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin older $29.99 5,004 92% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,502,099) Edelweiss
No Place Like Home older $19.99 3,784 78% 114k $2.3M (exactly $2,269,265) Chicken Launcher
Animal Shelter older $19.99 3,642 87% 109k $2.2M (exactly $2,184,107) Games Incubator
STORY OF SEASONS: Pioneers of Olive Town older $39.99 1,357 82% 41k $1.6M (exactly $1,627,993) Marvelous Inc.
Way of the Hunter 2 · EA $34.99 1,534 73% 46k $1.6M (exactly $1,610,240) Nine Rocks Games
Sakura Spirit older $9.99 4,877 77% 146k $1.5M (exactly $1,461,637) Winged Cloud
STORY OF SEASONS: A Wonderful Life older $39.99 1,199 78% 36k $1.4M (exactly $1,438,440) Marvelous Inc.
Fuga: Melodies of Steel older $39.99 1,181 93% 35k $1.4M (exactly $1,416,846) CyberConnect2
Calico older $11.99 3,238 88% 97k $1.2M (exactly $1,164,709) Peachy Keen Games
Animal Shelter 2 $24.99 1,204 79% 36k $903k (exactly $902,639) Games Incubator
Restore Your Island $12.99 1,631 77% 49k $636k (exactly $635,601) Paiband Game Studio
Anthro Heat $29.99 629 92% 19k $566k (exactly $565,911) Blue Lizard Studios
Maltese's Fluffy Onsen $5.99 2,727 94% 82k $490k (exactly $490,042) Sinkhole Studio, Moonlab Studio
Above the Snow $24.99 383 75% 11k $287k (exactly $287,135) Above the Desk
Gaucho and the Grassland $19.99 410 96% 12k $246k (exactly $245,877) Epopeia Games
Exotica 2: Pet Shop Simulator $14.99 529 75% 16k $238k (exactly $237,891) Konrul Game
Lyca $4.99 1,282 81% 38k $192k (exactly $191,915) Syphono4
Milfylicious - Chapter I $14.99 359 81% 11k $161k (exactly $161,442) Maximus

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.