Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Simulation game?

Simulation + Robots

Of 126 developers who shipped a Robot Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 246 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.0 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $280k, ×455 the market median. Revenue is down 30% on the market; 246 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 30% on the market, 246 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 126
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.3k → $897 → $1.2k → $599 → $6.7k → $1.8k → $2.6k (still earning) → $390 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 126
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,254)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $17,083)
Top 5% $286k (exactly $286,009)
Developers, 2 yr 126
Released games 430
Announced 246
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 30% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Exploration, Strategy
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, 2D, Cute
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 86% positive over 27,005 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $280k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 7 in 10 of the 71 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 246 games are announced against 68 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
The Talos Principle older $29.99 29,237 95% 877k $26M (exactly $26,304,529) Croteam
Planetary Annihilation: TITANS older $29.99 11,401 84% 342k $10M (exactly $10,257,480) Planetary Annihilation Inc
Super Robot Wars 30 older $59.99 5,608 85% 168k $10M (exactly $10,092,718) Bandai Namco Forge Digitals Inc.
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
Five Nights at Freddy's: Help Wanted 2 older $39.99 5,092 94% 153k $6.1M (exactly $6,108,872) Steel Wool Studios
Phantom Brigade older $29.99 4,412 81% 132k $4.0M (exactly $3,969,476) Brace Yourself Games
Five Nights at Freddy's 4 older $7.99 15,483 93% 464k $3.7M (exactly $3,711,275) Scott Cawthon
Per Aspera older $29.99 4,105 76% 123k $3.7M (exactly $3,693,268) Tlön Industries
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
IRON REBELLION $24.99 772 84% 23k $579k (exactly $578,768) Black Beach Studio
Microtopia $19.99 881 87% 26k $528k (exactly $528,336) Cordyceps Collective
Astronomics · EA $19.99 706 89% 21k $423k (exactly $423,388) Numizmatic
Granvir $14.99 842 90% 25k $379k (exactly $378,647) Airborne Games
Craftomation 101: Programming & Craft $14.99 636 83% 19k $286k (exactly $286,009) Luden.io
World End Diner $16.99 415 93% 12k $212k (exactly $211,525) Andymente
JOY OF PROGRAMMING - Software Engineering Simulator $17.99 378 76% 11k $204k (exactly $204,007) Prof. Scherer
You Know The Drill $4.99 1,022 92% 31k $153k (exactly $152,993) ludokai

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.