Do I ship it?

GamesAsynchronous MultiplayerAsynchronous Multiplayer + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Asynchronous Multiplayer Simulation game?

Asynchronous Multiplayer + Simulation

Of 61 developers who shipped an Asynchronous Multiplayer Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 92 more are announced, ×2.2 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $210; 1 in 20 cleared $330k, ×528 the market median. Revenue is up 225% on the market; 92 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 225% on the market, 92 announced, ×2.2 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Asynchronous Multiplayer + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 61
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $11k → $6.3k → $1.9k → $10k → $1.7k → $8.8k → $3.0k (still earning) → $600 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Asynchronous Multiplayer + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 61
Bottom 30% $201 (exactly $201)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,676)
Top 25% $25k (exactly $25,424)
Top 5% $332k (exactly $331,879)
Developers, 2 yr 61
Released games 188
Announced 92
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 225% on the market, supply 110% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 23%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Asynchronous Multiplayer
effort 5 / 10 · low · a backend with accounts and persistent turns
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Asynchronous Multiplayer, Simulation; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry PvP, Strategy, Management
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 76% positive over 35,953 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $210, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $25k, 1 in 20 over $330k.

3 in 10 developers made under $210. 8 in 10 of the 32 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 92 games are announced against 42 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.2 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Asynchronous Multiplayer with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Turn-BasedStrong odds13 devs · median $60k · 10 announced
  2. + Artificial IntelligenceStrong odds10 devs · median $25k · 12 announced
  3. + Immersive SimFair8 devs · median $17k · 10 announced
  4. + Board GameFair30 devs · median $6.7k · 33 announced
  5. + WarFair14 devs · median $6.0k · 20 announced
  6. + Turn-Based StrategyFair43 devs · median $3.6k · 54 announced
  7. + Strategy RPGFair8 devs · median $1.6k · 13 announced
  8. + SpaceLong shot15 devs · median $299 · 18 announced
  9. + Tactical RPGPoor odds10 devs · median $63k · 16 announced
  10. + Inventory ManagementPoor odds21 devs · median $56k · 48 announced
  11. + AutomationPoor odds12 devs · median $56k · 18 announced
  12. + MedievalPoor odds13 devs · median $53k · 38 announced

All 76 pairs on the Asynchronous Multiplayer page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Planet Coaster 2 $49.99 13,047 74% 391k $20M (exactly $19,566,586) Frontier Developments
Halloween: The Game $39.99 11,868 68% 356k $14M (exactly $14,238,040) IllFonic
Assetto Corsa Rally · EA $29.99 8,757 87% 263k $7.9M (exactly $7,878,673) Supernova Games Studios
Turmoil older $12.99 13,154 92% 395k $5.1M (exactly $5,126,114) Gamious
Root older $14.99 5,049 90% 151k $2.3M (exactly $2,270,535) Dire Wolf
Shadow Empire older $39.99 1,431 82% 43k $1.7M (exactly $1,716,771) VR Designs
TRYP FPV: Drone Racer Simulator · EA older $16.99 3,155 85% 95k $1.6M (exactly $1,608,103) UNDEAD BATTERY
Through the Ages older $15.99 2,188 90% 66k $1.0M (exactly $1,049,584) CGE Digital
Twilight Struggle older $9.99 2,568 86% 77k $770k (exactly $769,630) Playdek, Inc.
Kayak VR: Mirage older $22.99 1,006 82% 30k $694k (exactly $693,838) Better Than Life
Territory: Farming and Warfare $14.99 738 84% 22k $332k (exactly $331,879) Wit Studio
Disc Golf Masters · EA $24.99 427 83% 13k $320k (exactly $320,122) Spinoff Games
Exo Rally Championship $24.99 374 90% 11k $280k (exactly $280,388) Exbleative
Three Kingdoms:BOND · EA $7.49 408 83% 12k $92k (exactly $91,678) Get Wrapped Up Inc.
Quantum Odyssey · EA $17.99 141 92% 4.2k $76k (exactly $76,098) Quarks Interactive
RENNSPORT $24.99 87 50% 2.6k $65k (exactly $65,224) Teyon, Competition Company
EXOcars $19.99 106 69% 3.2k $64k (exactly $63,568) XOCUS

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.