Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Dinosaurs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dinosaur Simulation game?

Simulation + Dinosaurs

Of 38 developers who shipped a Dinosaur Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 53 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $120; 1 in 20 cleared $1.3M, ×2113 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 53 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 53 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Dinosaurs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 38
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $479 → $1.7k → $7.6k → $1.6k → $1.8k → $1.8k (still earning) → $1.7k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Dinosaurs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 38
Bottom 30% $119 (exactly $119)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,985)
Top 5% $1.3M (exactly $1,326,969)
Developers, 2 yr 38
Released games 160
Announced 53
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 115% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Dinosaurs
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, RPG, Adventure
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Third Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 91% positive over 14,766 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $120, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $1.3M.

3 in 10 developers made under $120. 9 in 10 of the 16 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 53 games are announced against 26 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Jurassic World Evolution 2 older $59.99 39,644 90% 1.2M $71M (exactly $71,347,307) Frontier Developments
The Isle · EA older $19.99 111,397 80% 3.3M $67M (exactly $66,804,781) Afterthought LLC
Jurassic World Evolution older $44.99 48,311 87% 1.4M $65M (exactly $65,205,357) Frontier Developments
Jurassic World Evolution 3 $59.99 11,387 93% 342k $20M (exactly $20,493,184) Frontier Developments
Prehistoric Kingdom · EA older $29.99 5,640 90% 169k $5.1M (exactly $5,074,308) Blue Meridian
Beasts of Bermuda · EA older $19.99 8,430 69% 253k $5.1M (exactly $5,055,471) Sastrei Studios, LLC
LEGO® Jurassic World older $19.99 7,797 92% 234k $4.7M (exactly $4,675,861) TT Games Ltd
Animal Revolt Battle Simulator older $14.99 6,571 95% 197k $3.0M (exactly $2,954,979) VDimension
Curious Expedition 2 older $19.99 3,861 88% 116k $2.3M (exactly $2,315,442) Maschinen-Mensch
Let's Build a Zoo older $19.99 3,722 89% 112k $2.2M (exactly $2,232,083) Springloaded
Amber Isle $24.99 1,770 82% 53k $1.3M (exactly $1,326,969) Ambertail Games
Dinotica $17.99 746 86% 22k $403k (exactly $402,616) XA Studio
Excidio The Kaiju Simulator $12.99 244 92% 7.3k $95k (exactly $95,087) TokuPop
King of Bones $7.99 316 85% 9.5k $76k (exactly $75,745) Gluten Free Games
Bean Beasts $13.99 113 89% 3.4k $47k (exactly $47,426) Anxious Noob
Primeval $14.99 75 60% 2.3k $34k (exactly $33,728) Exhibyte
Paleo Dive $19.99 33 84% 990 $20k (exactly $19,790) Astra Render
Dinosaurs Dominion $9.99 32 65% 960 $9.6k (exactly $9,590) Arcupion Art
Tidy Up History $5.99 50 90% 1.5k $9.0k (exactly $8,985) Casual Human

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.