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Should I ship a Physics Simulation game?
Physics + Simulation
Of 1,193 developers who shipped a Physics Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,874 more are announced, ×2.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $880k, ×1416 the market median. Revenue is up 115% on the market; 1,874 games are announced against 737 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $358 (exactly $358) |
|---|---|
| Median | $1.5k (exactly $1,499) |
| Top 25% | $19k (exactly $18,742) |
| Top 5% | $889k (exactly $889,355) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 1,193 |
| Released games | 3,351 |
| Announced | 1,874 |
| Effort | 5 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Low |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 115% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.
- Physics
- effort 5 / 10 · low · emergent simulation bugs need hands-on tuning
- Simulation
- effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
What it takes
- Effort
- 5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
- Systems
- Physics, Simulation; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Sandbox, Immersive Sim, Action
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Realistic
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 84% positive over 389,331 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $360. 8 in 10 of the 576 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,874 games are announced against 737 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Physics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Roguelike DeckbuilderStrong odds
- + Dating SimFair
- + PinballFair
- + World War IIFair
- + Mini GolfFair
- + GolfFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Hidden ObjectFair
- + CatsFair
- + Mystery DungeonFair
- + BilliardsFair
Comparable games
Garry's Mod 2006 · $328M 
BeamNG.drive 2015 · EA · $291M 
Kerbal Space Program 2015 · $145M 
Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition 2026 · $126M 
Teardown 2022 · $114M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Garry's Mod | older | $9.99 | 1,093,131 96% | 33M | $328M (exactly $327,611,361) | Facepunch Studios |
| | BeamNG.drive | · EA older | $24.99 | 388,236 97% | 12M | $291M (exactly $291,060,529) | BeamNG |
| | Kerbal Space Program | older | $39.99 | 120,656 95% | 3.6M | $145M (exactly $144,751,003) | Squad |
| | Microsoft Flight Simulator (2020) 40th Anniversary Edition | $59.99 | 70,073 78% | 2.1M | $126M (exactly $126,110,378) | Asobo Studio | |
| | Teardown | older | $29.99 | 126,563 95% | 3.8M | $114M (exactly $113,868,731) | Tuxedo Labs |
 | Human Fall Flat | older | $19.99 | 174,835 94% | 5.2M | $105M (exactly $104,848,549) | No Brakes Games |
 | Scrap Mechanic | $28.99 | 109,429 92% | 3.3M | $95M (exactly $95,170,401) | Axolot Games | |
 | People Playground | older | $9.99 | 298,158 98% | 8.9M | $89M (exactly $89,357,953) | mestiez |
 | Totally Accurate Battle Simulator | older | $19.99 | 144,036 97% | 4.3M | $86M (exactly $86,378,389) | Landfall |
 | Assetto Corsa | older | $19.99 | 136,067 92% | 4.1M | $82M (exactly $81,599,380) | Kunos Simulazioni |
 | Microsoft Flight Simulator 2024 | $69.99 | 21,633 59% | 649k | $45M (exactly $45,422,810) | Asobo Studio | |
 | Timberborn | $34.99 | 38,529 95% | 1.2M | $40M (exactly $40,443,891) | Mechanistry | |
 | Farming Simulator 25 | $29.99 | 39,681 87% | 1.2M | $36M (exactly $35,700,996) | GIANTS Software | |
 | Wobbly Life | $24.99 | 33,034 97% | 991k | $25M (exactly $24,765,590) | RubberBandGames | |
 | Half Sword | · EA | $24.99 | 28,656 71% | 860k | $21M (exactly $21,483,403) | Half Sword Games |
 | Assetto Corsa EVO | · EA | $39.99 | 16,545 60% | 496k | $20M (exactly $19,849,036) | KUNOS Simulazioni |
 | Cairn | $29.99 | 18,224 94% | 547k | $16M (exactly $16,396,133) | The Game Bakers | |
 | RoadCraft | $39.99 | 13,527 74% | 406k | $16M (exactly $16,228,342) | Saber Interactive |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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