Do I ship it?

Games › Real Time Tactics › Real Time Tactics + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Real Time Tactics?

Real Time Tactics + Simulation

Of 317 developers who shipped a Simulation Real Time Tactics in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 520 more are announced, ×2.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.7k, ×2.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1209 the market median. Revenue is down 35% on the market; 520 games are announced against 184 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 35% on the market, 520 announced, ×2.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Real Time Tactics + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 317
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $5.6k → $4.8k → $1.8k → $9.2k → $3.2k → $2.2k → $1.8k (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Real Time Tactics + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 317
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.7k (exactly $1,678)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,790)
Top 5% $759k (exactly $759,410)
Developers, 2 yr 317
Released games 964
Announced 520
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 35% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 11%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Real Time Tactics
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Real Time Tactics, Simulation; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, RTS, Wargame
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Top-Down
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 81% positive over 125,511 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.7k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 169 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 520 games are announced against 184 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Real Time Tactics with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + DragonsStrong odds17 devs · median $6.6k · 19 announced
  2. + Outbreak SimFair12 devs · median $1.8k · 14 announced
  3. + HackingFair11 devs · median $987 · 11 announced
  4. + World War IIPoor odds24 devs · median $67k · 35 announced
  5. + Cold WarPoor odds9 devs · median $19k · 16 announced
  6. + HistoricalPoor odds88 devs · median $19k · 154 announced
  7. + Real-Time with PausePoor odds19 devs · median $16k · 31 announced
  8. + Real-TimePoor odds16 devs · median $16k · 26 announced
  9. + MechsPoor odds16 devs · median $13k · 32 announced
  10. + Vehicular CombatPoor odds20 devs · median $9.6k · 50 announced
  11. + God GamePoor odds19 devs · median $7.8k · 32 announced
  12. + Open WorldPoor odds29 devs · median $7.2k · 111 announced

All 176 pairs on the Real Time Tactics page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Total War: WARHAMMER II 2017 · $153M Kenshi 2018 · $89M Total War: THREE KINGDOMS 2019 · $76M Arma Reforger 2023 · $62M Total War: WARHAMMER 2016 · $58M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER II older $59.99 85,134 92% 2.6M $153M (exactly $153,215,660) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Kenshi older $29.99 98,451 95% 3.0M $89M (exactly $88,576,365) Lo-Fi Games
Total War: THREE KINGDOMS older $39.99 63,110 82% 1.9M $76M (exactly $75,713,067) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Arma Reforger older $39.99 51,613 80% 1.5M $62M (exactly $61,920,116) Bohemia Interactive
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
Total War: ROME II - Emperor Edition older $29.99 54,547 87% 1.6M $49M (exactly $49,075,936) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
Men of War: Assault Squad 2 older $29.99 35,744 91% 1.1M $32M (exactly $32,158,877) Digitalmindsoft
WARNO older $39.99 14,502 80% 435k $17M (exactly $17,398,049) Eugen Systems
Total War: MEDIEVAL II – Definitive Edition older $19.99 27,319 95% 820k $16M (exactly $16,383,204) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (M… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux))
Going Medieval $29.99 17,032 88% 511k $15M (exactly $15,323,690) Foxy Voxel
Sea Power : Naval Combat in the Missile Age · EA $49.99 6,109 90% 183k $9.2M (exactly $9,161,667) Triassic Games
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
Stronghold Crusader: Definitive Edition $19.99 10,627 92% 319k $6.4M (exactly $6,373,012) Firefly Studios
Pro Soccer Online $4.99 23,241 82% 697k $3.5M (exactly $3,479,178) Skywall Studios LLC
Master of Command $29.99 3,840 92% 115k $3.5M (exactly $3,454,848) Armchair Interactive
Rising Front $14.99 4,057 88% 122k $1.8M (exactly $1,824,433) Sandstorm Studios Inc.
Call to Arms: Panzer Elite · EA $29.99 1,927 69% 58k $1.7M (exactly $1,733,722) Digitalmindsoft
Ultimate General: American Revolution $49.99 917 51% 28k $1.4M (exactly $1,375,225) Game-Labs

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.