Do I ship it?

GamesAction-AdventureAction-Adventure + Simulation

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Simulation Action-Adventure?

Action-Adventure + Simulation

Of 702 developers who shipped a Simulation Action-Adventure in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,180 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $230k, ×375 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 1,180 games are announced against 404 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 1,180 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Action-Adventure + Simulation
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 702
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $2.2k → $2.6k → $2.2k → $2.1k → $1.2k → $1.6k → $1.2k (still earning) → $390 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Action-Adventure + Simulation: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 702
Bottom 30% $299 (exactly $299)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,199)
Top 25% $9.6k (exactly $9,590)
Top 5% $236k (exactly $235,643)
Developers, 2 yr 702
Released games 1,995
Announced 1,180
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Action-Adventure
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Action-Adventure, Simulation; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Action, Exploration
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $18.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $18.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 92% positive over 91,470 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $9.5k, 1 in 20 over $230k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 417 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,180 games are announced against 404 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Action-Adventure with a different second tag, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair63 devs · median $12k · 69 announced
  2. + MinigamesFair18 devs · median $6.7k · 19 announced
  3. + BikesFair11 devs · median $2.5k · 11 announced
  4. + TransportationFair21 devs · median $2.3k · 22 announced
  5. + MotorbikeFair9 devs · median $2.3k · 12 announced
  6. + TypingLong shot14 devs · median $360 · 16 announced
  7. + Time AttackLong shot12 devs · median $150 · 17 announced
  8. + Character Action GamePoor odds23 devs · median $58k · 93 announced
  9. + MMORPGPoor odds15 devs · median $25k · 116 announced
  10. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds49 devs · median $25k · 133 announced
  11. + LGBTQ+Poor odds81 devs · median $24k · 135 announced
  12. + Villain ProtagonistPoor odds12 devs · median $17k · 26 announced

All 242 pairs on the Action-Adventure page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Sons Of The Forest older $29.99 284,572 88% 8.5M $256M (exactly $256,029,428) Endnight Games Ltd
鬼谷八荒 Tale of Immortal older $19.99 190,184 56% 5.7M $114M (exactly $114,053,345) 鬼谷工作室
Green Hell older $24.99 79,392 84% 2.4M $60M (exactly $59,520,182) Creepy Jar
Slime Rancher 2 $29.99 43,590 94% 1.3M $39M (exactly $39,217,923) Monomi Park
Maneater older $39.99 21,790 87% 654k $26M (exactly $26,141,463) Tripwire Interactive
Persona® 5 Strikers older $59.99 12,864 88% 386k $23M (exactly $23,151,341) ATLUS
Contraband Police older $29.99 24,882 95% 746k $22M (exactly $22,386,335) Crazy Rocks
Pacific Drive older $29.99 21,547 83% 646k $19M (exactly $19,385,836) Ironwood Studios
EVERSPACE™ 2 older $49.99 12,040 85% 361k $18M (exactly $18,056,388) ROCKFISH Games
Cairn $29.99 18,224 94% 547k $16M (exactly $16,396,133) The Game Bakers
Void Crew $24.99 6,573 86% 197k $4.9M (exactly $4,927,778) Hutlihut Games
Sledders $29.99 4,372 95% 131k $3.9M (exactly $3,933,488) Hanki Games
Crime Simulator $14.99 6,244 82% 187k $2.8M (exactly $2,807,927) CookieDev
Zoochosis $24.99 2,200 60% 66k $1.6M (exactly $1,649,340) Clapperheads
Aeruta $19.99 2,391 94% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,433,883) FromDawn Games
MOLE $12.99 3,534 97% 106k $1.4M (exactly $1,377,200) Off Black Creations
Funnel Runners · EA $14.99 2,941 83% 88k $1.3M (exactly $1,322,568) Supernova Studios LLC
WolfQuest: Classic $29.99 1,401 90% 42k $1.3M (exactly $1,260,480) eduweb

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.