Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Futuristic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Futuristic Simulation game?

Simulation + Futuristic

Of 383 developers who shipped a Futuristic Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 646 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.2k, ×1.9 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $270k, ×440 the market median. Revenue is up 40% on the market; 646 games are announced against 236 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 40% on the market, 646 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Futuristic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 383
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.0k → $3.1k → $4.2k → $1.2k → $1.5k → $899 → $1.5k (still earning) → $898 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Futuristic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 383
Bottom 30% $300 (exactly $300)
Median $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Top 25% $7.6k (exactly $7,645)
Top 5% $276k (exactly $276,208)
Developers, 2 yr 383
Released games 1,117
Announced 646
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 40% on the market, supply 55% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Futuristic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Strategy, Management
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 76,156 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.2k, 1 in 4 over $7.6k, 1 in 20 over $270k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 8 in 10 of the 192 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 646 games are announced against 236 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
Stellaris older $49.99 139,718 85% 4.2M $210M (exactly $209,535,085) Paradox Development Studio
REMATCH $29.99 39,905 70% 1.2M $36M (exactly $35,902,528) Sloclap
Hardspace: Shipbreaker older $34.99 19,431 89% 583k $20M (exactly $20,396,721) Blackbird Interactive
VTOL VR older $29.99 19,885 98% 597k $18M (exactly $17,890,534) Boundless Dynamics, LLC
Sid Meier's Civilization®: Beyond Earth™ older $39.99 14,047 61% 421k $17M (exactly $16,852,186) Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linu… (Firaxis Games, Aspyr (Mac), Aspyr (Linux))
SpaceEngine · EA older $29.99 15,826 96% 475k $14M (exactly $14,238,652) Cosmographic Software
Homeworld Remastered Collection older $34.99 11,977 87% 359k $13M (exactly $12,572,257) Gearbox Software, Aspyr (Mac)
shapez 2 - Factory $29.99 13,846 96% 415k $12M (exactly $12,457,246) tobspr Games
MechWarrior 5: Mercenaries older $29.99 13,347 84% 400k $12M (exactly $12,008,296) Piranha Games Inc.
MechWarrior 5: Clans $29.99 5,565 74% 167k $5.0M (exactly $5,006,830) Piranha Games Inc.
Void Crew $24.99 6,573 86% 197k $4.9M (exactly $4,927,778) Hutlihut Games
Angels Fall First $17.99 3,835 81% 115k $2.1M (exactly $2,069,749) Strangely Interactive Ltd
PLATiNA :: LAB $19.99 1,780 50% 53k $1.1M (exactly $1,067,466) HIGH-END Games
Farlands $17.99 1,628 89% 49k $879k (exactly $878,632) JanduSoft, Eric Rodríguez
Solargene $34.99 777 77% 23k $816k (exactly $815,617) Alexander Semenov
Approximately Up $24.99 995 93% 30k $746k (exactly $745,952) Approximately Games
Solar Expanse - Space Exploration Manager · EA $17.99 1,252 87% 38k $676k (exactly $675,704) SpaceOps

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.