Do I ship it?

GamesSimulationSimulation + Demons

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Demon Simulation game?

Simulation + Demons

Of 150 developers who shipped a Demon Simulation game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 178 more are announced, ×2.0 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $110k, ×177 the market median. Revenue is up 160% on the market; 178 games are announced against 88 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue up 160% on the market, 178 announced, ×2.0 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Simulation + Demons
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 150
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $9.6k → $3.3k → $4.5k → $2.1k → $1.7k → $1.7k → $2.6k (still earning) → $269 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Simulation + Demons: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 150
Bottom 30% $360 (exactly $360)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,498)
Top 25% $8.1k (exactly $8,086)
Top 5% $111k (exactly $110,889)
Developers, 2 yr 150
Released games 375
Announced 178
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $4.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 160% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Simulation
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band
Demons
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Systems
Simulation; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Adventure, Exploration
Price point
$4.99 typical · top 25% priced $12.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $12.99 or above; the middle game at $4.99.

The top 10 games average 68% positive over 7,764 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $8.0k, 1 in 20 over $110k.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 92 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 178 games are announced against 88 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.0 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Simulation with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FMVStrong odds150 devs · median $55k · 81 announced
  2. + Escape RoomStrong odds36 devs · median $3.6k · 26 announced
  3. + World War IFair23 devs · median $32k · 32 announced
  4. + Job SimulatorFair285 devs · median $12k · 362 announced
  5. + LGBTQ+Fair272 devs · median $9.7k · 303 announced
  6. + PinballFair27 devs · median $8.2k · 28 announced
  7. + Female ProtagonistFair672 devs · median $5.1k · 754 announced
  8. + BirdsFair19 devs · median $3.8k · 16 announced
  9. + Artificial IntelligenceFair387 devs · median $3.0k · 490 announced
  10. + MusicFair81 devs · median $3.0k · 92 announced
  11. + Auto BattlerFair219 devs · median $2.5k · 293 announced
  12. + ProgrammingFair132 devs · median $2.2k · 174 announced

All 287 pairs on the Simulation page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Total War: WARHAMMER older $59.99 32,105 79% 963k $58M (exactly $57,779,368) CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (L… (CREATIVE ASSEMBLY, Feral Interactive (Linux), Feral Interactive (Mac))
The Mortuary Assistant older $24.99 7,269 92% 218k $5.4M (exactly $5,449,569) DarkStone Digital
Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin older $29.99 5,004 92% 150k $4.5M (exactly $4,502,099) Edelweiss
Monster Prom older $11.99 12,245 93% 367k $4.4M (exactly $4,404,526) Beautiful Glitch
Dungeons 4 older $49.99 2,392 86% 72k $3.6M (exactly $3,587,282) Realmforge Studios
MADiSON older $34.99 3,007 87% 90k $3.2M (exactly $3,156,448) BLOODIOUS GAMES
BAD END THEATER older $9.99 8,877 97% 266k $2.7M (exactly $2,660,437) NomnomNami
Ghost Exorcism INC. · EA older $11.99 4,256 76% 128k $1.5M (exactly $1,530,883) StudioGoupil
Lucius II older $19.99 1,910 61% 57k $1.1M (exactly $1,145,427) Shiver Games
Worshippers of Cthulhu $24.99 1,305 80% 39k $978k (exactly $978,358) Crazy Goat Games
DON'T SCREAM TOGETHER $7.99 2,314 49% 69k $555k (exactly $554,666) Digital Cybercherries
Night is Coming · EA $24.99 387 59% 12k $290k (exactly $290,134) Wild Forest Studio
Photomaly $6.99 1,292 89% 39k $271k (exactly $270,932) Revira Interactive
Unpossess: Exorcism Simulator $14.99 373 70% 11k $168k (exactly $167,738) Chreseeba Games
FUTA RUNNER: Big Dick Edition $6.99 733 66% 22k $154k (exactly $153,710) Evil Boobs Cult
Loot Tycoon · EA $6.99 544 71% 16k $114k (exactly $114,077) Parallel Portal
The Unholy Priest $9.99 370 72% 11k $111k (exactly $110,889) Grejuva
Hauntsville $18.99 189 68% 5.7k $108k (exactly $107,673) Michael Janisch
Demon Castle Story $12.99 257 77% 7.7k $100k (exactly $100,153) Kairosoft Co.,Ltd

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.