Do I ship it?

Games › Mechanics › Shooter

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Shooter?

Shooter

Of 3,631 developers who shipped a Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 6,227 more are announced, ×3.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $630, level with the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $480k, ×768 the market median. Revenue is up 10% on the market; 6,227 games are announced against 2,040 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.0 times the market baseline, revenue up 10% on the market, 6,227 announced, ×3.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 3,631
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.1k → $1.3k → $719 → $898 → $809 → $898 → $599 (still earning) → $299 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 3,631
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $629 (exactly $629)
Top 25% $6.3k (exactly $6,290)
Top 5% $482k (exactly $482,483)
Developers, 2 yr 3,631
Released games 13,775
Announced 6,227
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 80% positive over 1,476,131 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $630, 1 in 4 over $6.2k, 1 in 20 over $480k.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 8 in 10 of the 2,152 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 6,227 games are announced against 2,040 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Shooter

71 pairs with a settingwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. Shooter + Vampires Fair $1.3k 38 devs
  2. Shooter + Snow Fair $570 22 devs
  3. Shooter + Capitalism Poor odds $11k 39 devs
  4. Shooter + Transhumanism Poor odds $10k 15 devs
  5. Shooter + Martial Arts Poor odds $8.2k 12 devs
  6. Shooter + LGBTQ+ Poor odds $7.0k 35 devs
  7. Shooter + Dinosaurs Poor odds $6.7k 22 devs
  8. Shooter + Cold War Poor odds $6.4k 28 devs
  9. Shooter + World War I Poor odds $6.4k 13 devs
  10. Shooter + Faith Poor odds $4.8k 29 devs
  11. Shooter + Romance Poor odds $4.3k 26 devs
  12. Shooter + Female Protagonist Poor odds $4.1k 327 devs
  13. Shooter + Lovecraftian Poor odds $4.1k 49 devs
  14. Shooter + Mechs Poor odds $3.5k 96 devs
  15. Shooter + Historical Poor odds $3.3k 53 devs
  16. Shooter + Music Poor odds $3.1k 26 devs
  17. Shooter + Assassins Poor odds $2.9k 27 devs
  18. Shooter + Steampunk Poor odds $2.9k 22 devs
  19. Shooter + Psychological Horror Poor odds $2.4k 233 devs
  20. Shooter + Time Travel Poor odds $2.4k 21 devs
  21. Shooter + Noir Poor odds $2.2k 39 devs
  22. Shooter + Horror Poor odds $1.8k 593 devs
  23. Shooter + Dystopian Poor odds $1.8k 133 devs
  24. Shooter + Mythology Poor odds $1.6k 46 devs
  25. Shooter + Spaceships Poor odds $1.5k 25 devs
  26. Shooter + Cyberpunk Poor odds $1.5k 237 devs
  27. Shooter + Trains Poor odds $1.5k 14 devs
  28. Shooter + Psychological Poor odds $1.4k 54 devs
  29. Shooter + Gothic Poor odds $1.4k 36 devs
  30. Shooter + Alternate History Poor odds $1.4k 64 devs
  31. Shooter + Supernatural Poor odds $1.3k 97 devs
  32. Shooter + World War II Poor odds $1.3k 47 devs
  33. Shooter + Superhero Poor odds $1.3k 11 devs
  34. Shooter + Detective Poor odds $1.3k 36 devs
  35. Shooter + Post-apocalyptic Poor odds $1.2k 424 devs
  36. Shooter + Robots Poor odds $1.2k 254 devs
  37. Shooter + Thriller Poor odds $1.2k 110 devs
  38. Shooter + Cats Poor odds $1.2k 36 devs
  39. Shooter + Demons Poor odds $1.1k 168 devs
  40. Shooter + Crime Poor odds $1.0k 72 devs
  41. Shooter + Underwater Poor odds $959 23 devs
  42. Shooter + War Poor odds $901 257 devs
  43. Shooter + Modern Poor odds $898 89 devs
  44. Shooter + Artificial Intelligence Poor odds $839 77 devs
  45. Shooter + Military Poor odds $838 338 devs
  46. Shooter + Dark Fantasy Poor odds $838 156 devs
  47. Shooter + Zombies Poor odds $750 508 devs
  48. Shooter + Werewolves Poor odds $748 9 devs
  49. Shooter + Mystery Poor odds $719 156 devs
  50. Shooter + Medieval Poor odds $719 78 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Red Dead Redemption 2 2019 · $1.5B Rust 2018 · $1.4B HELLDIVERS™ 2 2024 · $1.0B Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M DayZ 2018 · $582M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Red Dead Redemption 2 older $59.99 846,270 92% 25M $1.5B (exactly $1,523,032,119) Rockstar Games
Rust older $39.99 1,167,920 87% 35M $1.4B (exactly $1,401,153,624) Facepunch Studios
HELLDIVERS™ 2 older $39.99 838,901 76% 25M $1.0B (exactly $1,006,429,530) Arrowhead Game Studios
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
DayZ older $49.99 387,850 78% 12M $582M (exactly $581,658,645) Bohemia Interactive
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Ready or Not older $49.99 265,219 79% 8.0M $398M (exactly $397,748,934) VOID Interactive
ARC Raiders $39.99 299,346 82% 9.0M $359M (exactly $359,125,396) Embark Studios
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Garry's Mod older $9.99 1,093,131 96% 33M $328M (exactly $327,611,361) Facepunch Studios
S.T.A.L.K.E.R. 2: Heart of Chornobyl $59.99 106,592 81% 3.2M $192M (exactly $191,833,622) GSC Game World
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
DOOM: The Dark Ages $49.99 32,209 88% 966k $48M (exactly $48,303,837) id Software
Escape From Duckov $17.99 83,826 85% 2.5M $45M (exactly $45,240,892) Team Soda

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.