Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Gothic

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Gothic Shooter?

Shooter + Gothic

Of 36 developers who shipped a Gothic Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 98 more are announced, ×5.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.4k, ×2.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $300; 1 in 20 cleared $810k, ×1292 the market median. Revenue is up 1370% on the market; 98 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 1370% on the market, 98 announced, ×5.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Gothic
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 36
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $46k → $1.2k → $6.3k → $298 → $6.6k → $1.8k (still earning) → $30 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Gothic: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 36
Bottom 30% $298 (exactly $298)
Median $1.4k (exactly $1,435)
Top 25% $7.6k (exactly $7,645)
Top 5% $811k (exactly $811,259)
Developers, 2 yr 36
Released games 111
Announced 98
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 1370% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Gothic
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Arcade
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $16.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, Dark
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $16.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 85% positive over 5,839 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $300, median $1.4k, 1 in 4 over $7.6k, 1 in 20 over $810k.

3 in 10 developers made under $300. 9 in 10 of the 21 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 98 games are announced against 17 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Metal: Hellsinger older $29.99 13,989 96% 420k $13M (exactly $12,585,903) The Outsiders
Gloomwood · EA older $19.99 7,495 95% 225k $4.5M (exactly $4,494,752) Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Be… (Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Berens, Thomas Porta)
Painkiller $39.99 1,091 54% 33k $1.3M (exactly $1,308,873) Anshar Studios
KILL KNIGHT $14.99 1,804 93% 54k $811k (exactly $811,259) PlaySide
Heretic + Hexen $14.99 1,789 95% 54k $805k (exactly $804,513) id Software, Nightdive Studios
BloodRayne: Terminal Cut older $14.99 1,593 90% 48k $716k (exactly $716,372) Terminal Reality
Witch Hunt older $9.99 2,291 88% 69k $687k (exactly $686,613) Gua
Painkiller: Black Edition older $9.99 1,928 89% 58k $578k (exactly $577,822) People Can Fly
Warhammer 40,000: Battle Sister older $19.99 596 70% 18k $357k (exactly $357,421) Soul Assembly Ltd
Deathsmiles older $19.99 572 95% 17k $343k (exactly $343,028) CAVE Interactive CO.,LTD.
Brush Burial: Gutter World $9.99 838 93% 25k $251k (exactly $251,149) Knife Demon Software
Evil Awaits™ $16.99 49 75% 1.5k $25k (exactly $24,975) Chai Games
Nun of your Business $5.99 126 73% 3.8k $23k (exactly $22,642) Revolt Games
Hell Survivors · EA $7.99 38 55% 1.1k $9.1k (exactly $9,109) Aerilon
Dark Reaper Shoots! 2 $5.31 52 69% 1.6k $8.3k (exactly $8,284) SummerTimeStudio
MEAT 2 · EA $14.99 17 88% 510 $7.6k (exactly $7,645) Trippin Bears
Silver Bullet $6.99 35 100% 1.1k $7.3k (exactly $7,340) 1CC Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.