Do I ship it?

Games › Shooter › Shooter + Artificial Intelligence

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an AI Shooter?

Shooter + Artificial Intelligence

Of 77 developers who shipped an AI Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 172 more are announced, ×3.6 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $750k, ×1210 the market median. Revenue is up 305% on the market; 172 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 305% on the market, 172 announced, ×3.6 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Artificial Intelligence
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 77
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $748 → $779 → $150 → $1.8k → $300 → $1.3k (still earning) → $4.6k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Artificial Intelligence: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 77
Bottom 30% $179 (exactly $179)
Median $839 (exactly $839)
Top 25% $12k (exactly $11,745)
Top 5% $760k (exactly $759,820)
Developers, 2 yr 77
Released games 344
Announced 172
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 305% on the market, supply 60% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 22%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Artificial Intelligence
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, FPS, Combat
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 63% positive over 314,211 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $840, 1 in 4 over $11k, 1 in 20 over $750k.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 9 in 10 of the 38 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 172 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.6 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M Halo: Campaign Evolved 2026 · $19M STAR WARS™: Battlefront Classic Collection 2024 · $7.5M RUNNING WITH RIFLES 2015 · $6.6M SUPERHOT VR 2017 · $6.0M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Halo: Campaign Evolved $49.99 12,512 61% 375k $19M (exactly $18,764,246) Halo Studios
STAR WARS™: Battlefront Classic Collection older $35.01 7,125 23% 214k $7.5M (exactly $7,483,388) Aspyr
RUNNING WITH RIFLES older $14.99 14,676 87% 440k $6.6M (exactly $6,599,797) Osumia Games
SUPERHOT VR older $24.99 7,978 82% 239k $6.0M (exactly $5,981,107) SUPERHOT Team
Wanted: Dead older $29.99 1,373 67% 41k $1.2M (exactly $1,235,288) Soleil Ltd.
METAL EDEN $19.99 1,920 84% 58k $1.2M (exactly $1,151,424) Reikon Games
GERONIMO · EA $19.99 1,267 81% 38k $760k (exactly $759,820) Dark Matter Studios
Hubris older $29.99 819 74% 25k $737k (exactly $736,854) Cyborn B.V.
Dagger Directive $19.99 802 83% 24k $481k (exactly $480,959) Arcane Alpacas LLC
Touhou Kinjoukyou ～ Fossilized Wonders. $14.99 832 91% 25k $374k (exactly $374,150) 上海アリス幻樂団
C.A.S.T. (CHERNOZEM ANOMALY STRIKE TEAM) $6.99 777 87% 23k $163k (exactly $162,937) BRAIN DOES (NOT) WORK
Swarm Bunker: Lust Defense $9.99 386 88% 12k $116k (exactly $115,684) 001Studio-NSFW
Dino Ramen Express · EA $14.99 160 72% 4.8k $72k (exactly $71,952) ANTIGames
Artificial Extinction 2 $19.99 113 77% 3.4k $68k (exactly $67,766) 100Hr Games Inc

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.