Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Crime

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Crime Shooter?

Shooter + Crime

Of 72 developers who shipped a Crime Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 167 more are announced, ×4.8 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.0k, ×1.7 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $360; 1 in 20 cleared $3.5M, ×5632 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 167 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.7 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 167 announced, ×4.8 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Crime
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 72
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $3.6k → $101k → $1.5k → $9.0k → $1.1k → $1.6k → $1.0k (still earning) → $719 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Crime: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 72
Bottom 30% $356 (exactly $356)
Median $1.0k (exactly $1,048)
Top 25% $17k (exactly $16,776)
Top 5% $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721)
Developers, 2 yr 72
Released games 247
Announced 167
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $5.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 10% fewer developers than the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Crime
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, FPS, Open World
Price point
$5.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Atmospheric, Violent
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $5.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 530,842 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $360, median $1.0k, 1 in 4 over $16k, 1 in 20 over $3.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $360. 7 in 10 of the 42 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 167 games are announced against 35 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.8 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Ready or Not older $49.99 265,219 79% 8.0M $398M (exactly $397,748,934) VOID Interactive
Grand Theft Auto V Enhanced $29.99 210,784 83% 6.3M $190M (exactly $189,642,365) Rockstar North
Schedule I · EA $19.99 288,939 97% 8.7M $173M (exactly $173,276,718) TVGS
Watch_Dogs® 2 older $49.99 95,242 82% 2.9M $143M (exactly $142,834,427) Ubisoft
PAYDAY 2 older $9.99 445,531 89% 13M $134M (exactly $133,525,641) OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetr… (OVERKILL - a Starbreeze Studio., Sidetrack Games)
Grand Theft Auto IV: The Complete Edition older $19.99 180,637 83% 5.4M $108M (exactly $108,328,009) Rockstar North, Rockstar Toronto
Mafia: Definitive Edition older $39.99 88,955 86% 2.7M $107M (exactly $106,719,314) Hangar 13
PAYDAY 3 older $29.99 49,305 45% 1.5M $44M (exactly $44,359,708) Starbreeze Studios
Sleeping Dogs: Definitive Edition older $19.99 70,499 94% 2.1M $42M (exactly $42,278,250) United Front Games, Feral Interactive (… (United Front Games, Feral Interactive (Mac))
Mafia III: Definitive Edition older $29.99 41,612 57% 1.2M $37M (exactly $37,438,316) Hangar 13, Aspyr (Mac)
Mafia: The Old Country $49.99 20,909 71% 627k $31M (exactly $31,357,227) Hangar 13
RoboCop: Rogue City - Unfinished Business $29.99 3,931 84% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721) Teyon
Psycho Patrol R · EA $39.99 2,090 88% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,507,373) Consumer Softproducts
Better Than Dead · EA $14.99 1,500 72% 45k $675k (exactly $674,550) MONTE GALLO
Vivat Slovakia $19.99 827 50% 25k $496k (exactly $495,952) Team Vivat
Alpha Response · EA $19.99 788 77% 24k $473k (exactly $472,564) Ultimo Ratio Games
SWAT Commander · EA $19.99 665 77% 20k $399k (exactly $398,800) Red Mountain Games, Ritual Interactive
Responding · EA $24.99 409 45% 12k $307k (exactly $306,627) Visionary Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.