Games › Shooter › Shooter + Modern
Should I ship a Modern-Day Shooter?
Shooter + Modern
Of 89 developers who shipped a Modern-Day Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 157 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $900, ×1.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $270; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1327 the market median. Revenue is flat on the market; 157 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $270 (exactly $270) |
|---|---|
| Median | $898 (exactly $898) |
| Top 25% | $15k (exactly $15,103) |
| Top 5% | $833k (exactly $833,166) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 89 |
| Released games | 294 |
| Announced | 157 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $6.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue flat on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 21%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, FPS, Tactical
- Price point
- $6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Realistic, First-Person
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.
The top 10 games average 66% positive over 371,622 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $270. 8 in 10 of the 51 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 157 games are announced against 48 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + Dating SimFair
- + CollectathonFair
- + VampiresFair
- + Walking SimulatorFair
- + IdlerFair
- + Match 3Fair
- + SnowFair
- + Boss RushFair
- + IncrementalFair
- + ArcadeLong shot
- + Score AttackLong shot
- + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds
Comparable games
Battlefield™ 6 2025 · $620M 
Battlefield™ 2042 2021 · $468M 
Ready or Not 2023 · $398M 
Squad 2020 · $217M 
Gray Zone Warfare 2024 · EA · $83M | Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Battlefield™ 6 | $69.99 | 295,442 63% | 8.9M | $620M (exactly $620,339,567) | Battlefield Studios | |
| | Battlefield™ 2042 | older | $59.99 | 260,308 49% | 7.8M | $468M (exactly $468,476,308) | DICE |
| | Ready or Not | older | $49.99 | 265,219 79% | 8.0M | $398M (exactly $397,748,934) | VOID Interactive |
| | Squad | older | $39.99 | 180,505 82% | 5.4M | $217M (exactly $216,551,848) | Offworld |
| | Gray Zone Warfare | · EA older | $39.99 | 69,146 72% | 2.1M | $83M (exactly $82,954,456) | MADFINGER Games, a.s. |
 | Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® | older | $59.99 | 43,229 79% | 1.3M | $78M (exactly $77,799,231) | Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studio… (Infinity Ward, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Raven Software) |
 | WARDOGS | · EA | $39.99 | 58,250 81% | 1.7M | $70M (exactly $69,882,525) | BULKHEAD |
 | Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® II | older | $69.99 | 26,543 45% | 796k | $56M (exactly $55,732,337) | Infinity Ward, Raven Software, Beenox,… (Infinity Ward, Raven Software, Beenox, Treyarch, High Moon Studios, Sledgehammer Games, Demonware, Toys for Bob) |
 | Call of Duty®: Modern Warfare® III | older | $69.99 | 20,701 47% | 621k | $43M (exactly $43,465,890) | Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity… (Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, Infinity Ward, Beenox, Raven Software, High Moon Studios, Demonware) |
 | Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 | older | $39.99 | 12,781 83% | 383k | $15M (exactly $15,333,366) | CI Games |
 | Onward | $24.99 | 8,621 69% | 259k | $6.5M (exactly $6,463,164) | Downpour Interactive | |
 | Forefront | $27.99 | 1,913 84% | 57k | $1.6M (exactly $1,606,346) | Triangle Factory | |
 | 近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau | $9.99 | 2,780 92% | 83k | $833k (exactly $833,166) | Noto Muteki | |
 | Grandpa High on Retro | $7.99 | 2,068 88% | 62k | $496k (exactly $495,700) | Ashnell Games | |
 | Dagger Directive | $19.99 | 802 83% | 24k | $481k (exactly $480,959) | Arcane Alpacas LLC | |
 | Alpha Response | · EA | $19.99 | 788 77% | 24k | $473k (exactly $472,564) | Ultimo Ratio Games |
 | Zero Caliber 2 Remastered | $24.99 | 433 79% | 13k | $325k (exactly $324,620) | XREAL Games | |
 | Project L33T: Founders Edition | $19.99 | 525 47% | 16k | $315k (exactly $314,842) | Targetpoint Interactive, Holmgard Games |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
Your address goes to Buttondown, which sends the letter, and nowhere else. Every issue has an unsubscribe link. No tracking beyond the open count Buttondown keeps.