Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Supernatural

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Supernatural Shooter?

Shooter + Supernatural

Of 97 developers who shipped a Supernatural Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 189 more are announced, ×3.4 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.3k, ×2.1 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $240; 1 in 20 cleared $830k, ×1327 the market median. Revenue is up 45% on the market; 189 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.1 times the market baseline, revenue up 45% on the market, 189 announced, ×3.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Supernatural
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 97
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.2k → $3.0k → $20k → $2.7k → $836 → $1.9k → $358 (still earning) → $899 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Supernatural: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 97
Bottom 30% $238 (exactly $238)
Median $1.3k (exactly $1,349)
Top 25% $6.6k (exactly $6,626)
Top 5% $833k (exactly $833,166)
Developers, 2 yr 97
Released games 254
Announced 189
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 45% on the market, supply 30% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 15%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Supernatural
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, FPS, Adventure
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
6 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 3D, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 78% positive over 17,997 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $240, median $1.3k, 1 in 4 over $6.6k, 1 in 20 over $830k.

3 in 10 developers made under $240. 8 in 10 of the 49 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 189 games are announced against 55 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.4 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
CONTROL Ultimate Edition older $39.99 50,602 86% 1.5M $61M (exactly $60,707,219) Remedy Entertainment
Alan Wake older $14.99 45,662 89% 1.4M $21M (exactly $20,534,201) Remedy Entertainment
BIGFOOT · EA older $19.99 17,818 83% 535k $11M (exactly $10,685,455) CyberLight Game Studio
John Carpenter's Toxic Commando $39.99 6,274 72% 188k $7.5M (exactly $7,526,918) Saber Interactive
The Darkness II older $29.99 8,204 91% 246k $7.4M (exactly $7,381,139) Digital Extremes
Midnight Ghost Hunt older $19.99 5,420 80% 163k $3.3M (exactly $3,250,374) Vaulted Sky Games
Redfall older $39.99 2,460 40% 74k $3.0M (exactly $2,951,262) Arkane Austin
Alan Wake's American Nightmare older $8.99 8,352 74% 251k $2.3M (exactly $2,252,534) Remedy Entertainment
Forgive Me Father older $19.99 3,705 84% 111k $2.2M (exactly $2,221,888) Byte Barrel
Gal*Gun 2 older $29.99 2,094 83% 63k $1.9M (exactly $1,883,972) INTI CREATES CO., LTD.
Tormented Souls 2 $29.99 1,675 88% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,506,998) Dual Effect
Sorry We're Closed $24.99 1,643 98% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,231,757) à la mode games
FBC: Firebreak $19.99 1,985 65% 60k $1.2M (exactly $1,190,404) Remedy Entertainment
近畿霊務局 - Kinki Spiritual Affairs Bureau $9.99 2,780 92% 83k $833k (exactly $833,166) Noto Muteki
Folklore Hunter $17.99 1,217 75% 37k $657k (exactly $656,815) Liquid Donkey Games
Active Matter $29.99 522 75% 16k $470k (exactly $469,643) Matter Team
Section 13 $19.99 770 70% 23k $462k (exactly $461,769) Ocean Drive Studio, Inc.
RIFTSTORM · EA $14.99 659 70% 20k $296k (exactly $296,352) Confiction Labs, Agate
Soulslinger: Envoy of Death $19.99 472 63% 14k $283k (exactly $283,058) Elder Games

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.