Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Dinosaurs

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Dinosaur Shooter?

Shooter + Dinosaurs

Of 22 developers who shipped a Dinosaur Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 35 more are announced, ×2.9 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $6.7k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $450; 1 in 20 cleared $430k, ×696 the market median. Revenue is up 35% on the market; 35 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 10.7 times the market baseline, revenue up 35% on the market, 35 announced, ×2.9 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Dinosaurs
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 22
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $898 → $449 → $14k → $1.5k → $30k → $449 (still earning) → $84k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Dinosaurs: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 22
Bottom 30% $449 (exactly $449)
Median $6.7k (exactly $6,746)
Top 25% $21k (exactly $20,693)
Top 5% $437k (exactly $437,181)
Developers, 2 yr 22
Released games 95
Announced 35
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 35% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Dinosaurs
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, FPS
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Gore
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 73% positive over 3,848 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $450, median $6.7k, 1 in 4 over $20k, 1 in 20 over $430k.

3 in 10 developers made under $450. 9 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 35 games are announced against 12 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.9 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Exoprimal older $59.99 2,581 76% 77k $4.6M (exactly $4,645,026) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Primal Carnage: Extinction older $12.99 8,283 84% 248k $3.2M (exactly $3,227,885) Circle Five Studios, Pub Games
Dino D-Day older $9.99 8,039 86% 241k $2.4M (exactly $2,409,288) 800 North and Digital Ranch
Turok older $19.99 3,377 93% 101k $2.0M (exactly $2,025,187) Iguana Entertainment, Nightdive Studios
Tomb Raider: Anniversary older $8.99 6,644 81% 199k $1.8M (exactly $1,791,887) Crystal Dynamics
Turok 2: Seeds of Evil older $19.99 2,385 91% 72k $1.4M (exactly $1,430,284) Iguana Entertainment, Nightdive Studios
Tomb Raider I (1996) older $6.99 4,039 85% 121k $847k (exactly $846,978) Core Design
Primal Carnage older $4.99 4,776 77% 143k $715k (exactly $714,967) Lukewarm Media
ORION: Prelude older $0.99 19,038 77% 571k $565k (exactly $565,429) DANKIE
FEROCIOUS $24.99 742 63% 22k $556k (exactly $556,277) OMYOG
Clawed $19.99 729 52% 22k $437k (exactly $437,181) Flatrock Games
Dino Crisis $9.99 947 80% 28k $284k (exactly $283,816) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Dino Crisis 2 $9.99 709 87% 21k $212k (exactly $212,487) CAPCOM Co., Ltd., GOG.com
Dewdrop Dynasty $11.99 233 78% 7.0k $84k (exactly $83,810) Goodgis
Mesorift Survival · EA $7.99 124 67% 3.7k $30k (exactly $29,723) Meik.W Interactive
Son and Bone $29.99 23 56% 690 $21k (exactly $20,693) TeamKill Media
Outbreak: Shades of Horror Chromatic Split $24.99 24 50% 720 $18k (exactly $17,993) Dead Drop Studios LLC
BLOOD MALL: RETAPED $1.99 285 94% 8.6k $17k (exactly $17,014) Ollie Hall
Creatures Of War $14.99 32 75% 960 $14k (exactly $14,390) Chaos Entertainment

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.