Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Lovecraftian

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Lovecraftian Shooter?

Shooter + Lovecraftian

Of 49 developers who shipped a Lovecraftian Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 107 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.1k, ×6.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $400k, ×639 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 107 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 107 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Lovecraftian
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 49
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $4.5k → $8.1k → $11k → $4.5k → $8.3k → $88k → $1.7k (still earning) → $4.2k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Lovecraftian: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 49
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,198)
Median $4.1k (exactly $4,133)
Top 25% $41k (exactly $40,780)
Top 5% $401k (exactly $401,001)
Developers, 2 yr 49
Released games 140
Announced 107
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 12%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Lovecraftian
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, FPS
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, First-Person, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 6,455 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $4.1k, 1 in 4 over $40k, 1 in 20 over $400k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 7 in 10 of the 22 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 107 games are announced against 29 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Remnant: From the Ashes older $39.99 47,193 84% 1.4M $57M (exactly $56,617,442) Gunfire Games
SIGNALIS older $19.99 30,601 96% 918k $18M (exactly $18,351,420) rose-engine
DUSK older $19.99 22,073 97% 662k $13M (exactly $13,237,178) David Szymanski
Returnal™ older $59.99 6,602 79% 198k $12M (exactly $11,881,619) Housemarque, Climax Studios
Blood West older $24.99 6,132 90% 184k $4.6M (exactly $4,597,160) Hyperstrange
Gloomwood · EA older $19.99 7,495 95% 225k $4.5M (exactly $4,494,752) Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Be… (Dillon Rogers, David Szymanski, Nate Berens, Thomas Porta)
CULTIC older $9.99 8,027 97% 241k $2.4M (exactly $2,405,692) Jasozz Games
Vertigo 2 older $29.99 2,579 95% 77k $2.3M (exactly $2,320,326) Zach Tsiakalis-Brown
Devil Daggers older $9.99 7,442 96% 223k $2.2M (exactly $2,230,367) Sorath
Forgive Me Father older $19.99 3,705 84% 111k $2.2M (exactly $2,221,888) Byte Barrel
The Sinking City 2 $49.99 1,410 83% 42k $2.1M (exactly $2,114,577) Frogwares
Forgive Me Father 2 $24.99 1,500 81% 45k $1.1M (exactly $1,124,550) Byte Barrel
UMIGARI | ウミガリ $12.99 1,029 82% 31k $401k (exactly $401,001) Chilla's Art
Viscerafest $19.99 540 87% 16k $324k (exactly $323,838) Acid Man Games, Fire Plant Games
Endoparasitic 2 $11.99 630 86% 19k $227k (exactly $226,611) Miziziziz
Zombie Army VR $29.99 182 44% 5.5k $164k (exactly $163,745) Rebellion, Xtended Realities
Beneath $19.99 262 69% 7.9k $157k (exactly $157,121) Camel 101
Dementium: The Ward $14.99 277 87% 8.3k $125k (exactly $124,567) Atooi
Death In Abyss $19.99 146 82% 4.4k $88k (exactly $87,556) Agelvik
Dark Fairy Tale: Dreamland Survivors $4.99 479 90% 14k $72k (exactly $71,706) BINGOBELL

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.