Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + LGBTQ+

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an LGBTQ+ Shooter?

Shooter + LGBTQ+

Of 35 developers who shipped an LGBTQ+ Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 45 more are announced, ×2.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $7.0k, ×11 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $2.1k; 1 in 20 cleared $1.2M, ×1961 the market median. Revenue is up 30% on the market; 45 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 11.2 times the market baseline, revenue up 30% on the market, 45 announced, ×2.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + LGBTQ+
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 35
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $49k → $5.8k → $21k → $5.9k → $8.2k → $5.8k → $36k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + LGBTQ+: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 35
Bottom 30% $2.1k (exactly $2,096)
Median $7.0k (exactly $7,016)
Top 25% $70k (exactly $69,896)
Top 5% $1.2M (exactly $1,231,757)
Developers, 2 yr 35
Released games 101
Announced 45
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 30% on the market, supply 25% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 17%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
LGBTQ+
effort 2 / 10 · high · effort 2 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, FPS, Boomer Shooter
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, 3D, Atmospheric
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 82% positive over 50,089 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $2.1k, median $7.0k, 1 in 4 over $69k, 1 in 20 over $1.2M.

3 in 10 developers made under $2.1k. 6 in 10 of the 20 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 45 games are announced against 20 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Marathon $39.99 44,919 81% 1.3M $54M (exactly $53,889,324) Bungie
Far Cry® New Dawn older $39.99 32,169 75% 965k $39M (exactly $38,593,149) Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kiev, Ubisoft Shanghai)
Suicide Squad: Kill the Justice League older $69.99 12,718 60% 382k $27M (exactly $26,703,985) Rocksteady Studios
Gears 5 older $29.99 21,210 72% 636k $19M (exactly $19,082,637) The Coalition
SIGNALIS older $19.99 30,601 96% 918k $18M (exactly $18,351,420) rose-engine
Wolfenstein: Youngblood older $19.99 12,702 43% 381k $7.6M (exactly $7,617,389) MachineGames, Arkane Studios
Call of Duty®: Vanguard older $59.99 4,172 67% 125k $7.5M (exactly $7,508,348) Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, High Moon… (Sledgehammer Games, Treyarch, High Moon Studios, Raven Software, Beenox, Demonware)
Immortals of Aveum™ older $59.99 2,794 71% 84k $5.0M (exactly $5,028,362) Ascendant Studios
Sorry We're Closed $24.99 1,643 98% 49k $1.2M (exactly $1,231,757) à la mode games
UNSIGHTED older $19.99 1,863 93% 56k $1.1M (exactly $1,117,241) Studio Pixel Punk
Battle Shapers $24.99 984 80% 30k $738k (exactly $737,705) Metric Empire
Don't Stop, Girlypop! $19.99 518 83% 16k $311k (exactly $310,645) Funny Fintan Softworks
Sensual Adventures - Treasure Island · EA $29.99 303 81% 9.1k $273k (exactly $272,609) Puppetmaster3dx
Brush Burial: Gutter World $9.99 838 93% 25k $251k (exactly $251,149) Knife Demon Software
Shooty Shooty Robot Invasion $9.99 353 93% 11k $106k (exactly $105,794) Bubby Darkstar
Project Songbird $14.99 195 85% 5.9k $88k (exactly $87,692) FYRE Games, Conner Rush
Yuri Sword Saga $10.99 212 97% 6.4k $70k (exactly $69,896) Pico Games
Lust Effect [18+] $14.99 124 66% 3.7k $56k (exactly $55,763) Dirty Adventures 🖤

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.