Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Female Protagonist

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Female-Led Shooter?

Shooter + Female Protagonist

Of 327 developers who shipped a Female-Led Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 463 more are announced, ×2.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $4.1k, ×6.6 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $810; 1 in 20 cleared $670k, ×1074 the market median. Revenue is up 50% on the market; 463 games are announced against 171 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.6 times the market baseline, revenue up 50% on the market, 463 announced, ×2.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Female Protagonist
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 327
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $6.6k → $5.8k → $3.2k → $4.2k → $5.8k → $4.6k → $4.8k (still earning) → $839 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Female Protagonist: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 327
Bottom 30% $809 (exactly $809)
Median $4.1k (exactly $4,133)
Top 25% $31k (exactly $30,869)
Top 5% $675k (exactly $674,550)
Developers, 2 yr 327
Released games 1,139
Announced 463
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $8.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 50% on the market, supply as many developers as the period before.

Free games: 10%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Female Protagonist
effort 3 / 10 · high · effort 3 sits in the high band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 3 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, FPS
Price point
$8.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Anime
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $8.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 82,654 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $810, median $4.1k, 1 in 4 over $30k, 1 in 20 over $670k.

3 in 10 developers made under $810. 7 in 10 of the 183 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 463 games are announced against 171 developers who shipped in the last year, ×2.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Resident Evil 2 older $39.99 156,065 97% 4.7M $187M (exactly $187,231,180) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Half-Life: Alyx older $59.99 93,001 98% 2.8M $167M (exactly $167,373,900) Valve
Rise of the Tomb Raider™ older $29.99 127,316 94% 3.8M $115M (exactly $114,546,205) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral Interactive (Linux), Nixxes)
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition older $59.99 62,205 91% 1.9M $112M (exactly $111,950,338) BioWare
Tomb Raider Game of the Year older $19.99 173,270 95% 5.2M $104M (exactly $103,910,019) Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral… (Crystal Dynamics, Eidos-Montréal, Feral Interactive (Mac), Nixxes)
Shadow of the Tomb Raider: Definitive Edition older $39.99 71,706 84% 2.2M $86M (exactly $86,025,688) Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxe… (Eidos-Montréal, Crystal Dynamics, Nixxes, Feral Interactive (Mac), Feral interactive (Linux))
CONTROL Ultimate Edition older $39.99 50,602 86% 1.5M $61M (exactly $60,707,219) Remedy Entertainment
Call of Duty®: WWII older $59.99 33,576 71% 1.0M $60M (exactly $60,426,727) Sledgehammer Games, Raven Software
Far Cry® 6 older $59.99 33,280 71% 998k $60M (exactly $59,894,016) Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubis… (Ubisoft Toronto, Ubisoft Montreal, Ubisoft Kyiv, Ubisoft Shanghai, Ubisoft Berlin)
Slime Rancher 2 $29.99 43,590 94% 1.3M $39M (exactly $39,217,923) Monomi Park
Star Wars Outlaws $69.99 12,268 71% 368k $26M (exactly $25,759,120) Massive Entertainment – A Ubisoft Studio
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
SYNDUALITY Echo of Ada $39.99 3,303 40% 99k $4.0M (exactly $3,962,609) Game Studio Inc.
Touhou Koumakyou: New Classic - the Embodiment of Scarlet Devil $17.99 3,740 98% 112k $2.0M (exactly $2,018,478) 上海アリス幻樂団, 上海アリスReprise
Beyond Citadel $14.99 4,417 96% 133k $2.0M (exactly $1,986,325) doekuramori
Tormented Souls 2 $29.99 1,675 88% 50k $1.5M (exactly $1,506,998) Dual Effect
Dolls Nest $19.99 2,421 88% 73k $1.5M (exactly $1,451,874) NITRO PLUS
Silly Polly Beast $19.99 2,278 90% 68k $1.4M (exactly $1,366,117) Anji
Terminator 2D: NO FATE $29.99 1,450 84% 44k $1.3M (exactly $1,304,565) Bitmap Bureau

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.