Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Assassins

Specimen · observed

Should I ship an Assassin Shooter?

Shooter + Assassins

Of 27 developers who shipped an Assassin Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 65 more are announced, ×4.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 7 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $2.9k, ×1.9 the market's $1.5k for a 7 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $480; 1 in 20 cleared $1.4M, ×980 the market median. Revenue is up 110% on the market; 65 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.9 times the market baseline, revenue up 110% on the market, 65 announced, ×4.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Assassins
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 27
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $478 → $8.6k → $2.2k → $696k → $1.4k → $3.8k → $1.4k (still earning) → $424k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Assassins: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 27
Bottom 30% $479 (exactly $479)
Median $2.9k (exactly $2,876)
Top 25% $18k (exactly $17,538)
Top 5% $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371)
Developers, 2 yr 27
Released games 120
Announced 65
Effort 7 / 10
AI-buildability Low
Typical price $7.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 110% on the market, supply 45% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is low: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Assassins
effort 7 / 10 · low · effort 7 sits in the low band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
7 / 10 · big single-player or serious online
Systems
Shooter; 4 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Exploration, Beat 'em up
Price point
$7.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
4 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $7.99.

The top 10 games average 87% positive over 13,821 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $480, median $2.9k, 1 in 4 over $17k, 1 in 20 over $1.4M.

3 in 10 developers made under $480. 8 in 10 of the 12 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 65 games are announced against 16 developers who shipped in the last year, ×4.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
HITMAN World of Assassination older $29.99 58,655 87% 1.8M $53M (exactly $52,771,904) IO Interactive A/S
Counter-Strike older $9.99 169,780 96% 5.1M $51M (exactly $50,883,066) Valve
DEATHLOOP older $59.99 19,910 76% 597k $36M (exactly $35,832,027) Arkane Studios
Hitman: Absolution™ older $19.99 49,637 93% 1.5M $30M (exactly $29,767,309) Io-Interactive A/S
Dishonored older $9.99 67,504 97% 2.0M $20M (exactly $20,230,949) Arkane Studios
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts 2 older $39.99 12,781 83% 383k $15M (exactly $15,333,366) CI Games
Cruelty Squad older $19.99 23,209 96% 696k $14M (exactly $13,918,437) Consumer Softproducts
Sniper Ghost Warrior Contracts older $29.99 10,966 73% 329k $9.9M (exactly $9,866,110) CI Games
The Killing Antidote · EA $29.99 7,512 88% 225k $6.8M (exactly $6,758,546) MetalStar Studio
Hitman: Blood Money older $9.99 13,642 93% 409k $4.1M (exactly $4,088,507) Io-Interactive A/S
Suit for Hire $14.99 3,263 92% 98k $1.5M (exactly $1,467,371) Godmode Interactive
Gunman Contracts - Stand Alone · EA $24.99 1,180 78% 35k $885k (exactly $884,646) ANB_Seth
BLACKWOOD $24.99 565 46% 17k $424k (exactly $423,580) AttritoM7 Productions
Brush Burial: Gutter World $9.99 838 93% 25k $251k (exactly $251,149) Knife Demon Software
Neon Inferno $19.99 378 92% 11k $227k (exactly $226,687) Zenovia Interactive
Red Tears: Angola · EA $14.99 39 84% 1.2k $18k (exactly $17,538) Arun Haines
Kebabstar 🌯⭐ · EA $14.99 14 78% 420 $6.3k (exactly $6,296) Zeybek
Project Chameleon $9.99 19 100% 570 $5.7k (exactly $5,694) Anonymous King
ZOMBIE NTR APOCALYPSE $10.99 13 69% 390 $4.3k (exactly $4,286) RaigenGames

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.