Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Military

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Military Shooter?

Shooter + Military

Of 338 developers who shipped a Military Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 693 more are announced, ×3.7 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $180; 1 in 20 cleared $2.0M, ×3296 the market median. Revenue is up 25% on the market; 693 games are announced against 185 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue up 25% on the market, 693 announced, ×3.7 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Military
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 338
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $807 → $1.6k → $748 → $1.6k → $807 → $657 → $748 (still earning) → $1.5k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Military: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 338
Bottom 30% $180 (exactly $180)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $16k (exactly $15,750)
Top 5% $2.1M (exactly $2,069,749)
Developers, 2 yr 338
Released games 1,316
Announced 693
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue up 25% on the market, supply 15% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 18%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Military
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, FPS, Combat
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with First-Person, Realistic, 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 66% positive over 512,327 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $180, median $840, 1 in 4 over $15k, 1 in 20 over $2.0M.

3 in 10 developers made under $180. 8 in 10 of the 203 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 693 games are announced against 185 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.7 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Battlefield™ 6 $69.99 295,442 63% 8.9M $620M (exactly $620,339,567) Battlefield Studios
Battlefield™ 2042 older $59.99 260,308 49% 7.8M $468M (exactly $468,476,308) DICE
Battlefield™ V older $49.99 236,709 70% 7.1M $355M (exactly $354,992,487) DICE
Titanfall® 2 older $29.99 255,050 95% 7.7M $229M (exactly $229,468,485) Respawn Entertainment
Squad older $39.99 180,505 82% 5.4M $217M (exactly $216,551,848) Offworld
Arma 3 older $29.99 228,910 90% 6.9M $206M (exactly $205,950,327) Bohemia Interactive
Hell Let Loose older $49.99 99,628 83% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,412,112) Expression Games
Tom Clancy's Ghost Recon® Wildlands older $49.99 99,590 78% 3.0M $149M (exactly $149,355,123) Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft… (Ubisoft Paris, Ubisoft Annecy, Ubisoft Bucharest, Ubisoft Montpellier, Ubisoft Milan, Reflections, Ubisoft Belgrade)
Mass Effect™ Legendary Edition older $59.99 62,205 91% 1.9M $112M (exactly $111,950,338) BioWare
Insurgency: Sandstorm older $29.99 104,168 85% 3.1M $94M (exactly $93,719,950) New World Interactive
Escape from Tarkov $49.99 55,824 49% 1.7M $84M (exactly $83,719,253) Battlestate Games
WARDOGS · EA $39.99 58,250 81% 1.7M $70M (exactly $69,882,525) BULKHEAD
Call of Duty®: Black Ops 6 $69.99 14,063 44% 422k $30M (exactly $29,528,081) Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Activision Shanghai, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Demonware)
Pavlov $24.99 37,865 88% 1.1M $28M (exactly $28,387,390) Vankrupt Games
GROUND BRANCH $29.99 22,391 83% 672k $20M (exactly $20,145,183) BlackFoot Studios, MicroProse Software
Hell Let Loose: Vietnam $39.99 10,702 61% 321k $13M (exactly $12,839,189) Expression Games
Call of Duty®: Black Ops 7 $69.99 4,344 37% 130k $9.1M (exactly $9,121,097) Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High… (Treyarch, Raven Software, Beenox, High Moon Studios, Sledgehammer Games, Infinity Ward, Activision Shanghai, Demonware)
Sniper Elite: Resistance $49.99 4,825 75% 145k $7.2M (exactly $7,236,052) Rebellion
Onward $24.99 8,621 69% 259k $6.5M (exactly $6,463,164) Downpour Interactive

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.