Do I ship it?

GamesShooterShooter + Spaceships

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Spaceship Shooter?

Shooter + Spaceships

Of 25 developers who shipped a Spaceship Shooter in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 21 more are announced.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $1.5k, ×2.4 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $150; 1 in 20 cleared $4.5M, ×7209 the market median. Revenue is down 75% on the market; 21 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 2.4 times the market baseline, revenue down 75% on the market, 21 announced, ×1.4 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Spaceships
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 25
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $119 → $299 → $479 → $1.4k → $13k → $0 (still earning) → $2.3k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Spaceships: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 25
Bottom 30% $150 (exactly $150)
Median $1.5k (exactly $1,499)
Top 25% $20k (exactly $19,787)
Top 5% $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290)
Developers, 2 yr 25
Released games 77
Announced 21
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 75% on the market, supply 35% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 5%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Spaceships
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 7 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Adventure, Looter Shooter
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
3 in 10 of the top 25% ship with Atmospheric, 2D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 83% positive over 17,712 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $150, median $1.5k, 1 in 4 over $19k, 1 in 20 over $4.5M.

3 in 10 developers made under $150. 6 in 10 of the 11 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 21 games are announced against 15 developers who shipped in the last year.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
STAR WARS™: Squadrons older $39.99 25,086 66% 753k $30M (exactly $30,095,674) MOTIVE
Jump Space · EA $19.99 10,724 85% 322k $6.4M (exactly $6,431,183) Keepsake Games
Wildgate $29.99 5,032 77% 151k $4.5M (exactly $4,527,290) Moonshot Games
Chorus older $24.99 3,876 81% 116k $2.9M (exactly $2,905,837) Deep Silver Fishlabs
Space Pirates and Zombies older $9.99 2,231 91% 67k $669k (exactly $668,631) MinMax Games Ltd.
Reality Break $24.99 683 80% 20k $512k (exactly $512,045) Element Games, LLC
Descent: FreeSpace – The Great War older $19.99 234 77% 7.0k $140k (exactly $140,330) Volition Inc.
Star Vortex · EA $24.99 154 84% 4.6k $115k (exactly $115,454) Zorg Games
HELL GALAXY $24.99 89 74% 2.7k $67k (exactly $66,723) Italian Games Factory
I See Red older $9.99 106 90% 3.2k $32k (exactly $31,768) Whiteboard Games
Deep Space Cache $0.99 884 90% 27k $26k (exactly $26,255) Monu
eXoSpace Combat Engineer · EA $14.99 44 81% 1.3k $20k (exactly $19,787) Fantastimaker
Emerald Blue $9.99 43 100% 1.3k $13k (exactly $12,887) Emerald Blue Team
SUPERVERSE $9.99 37 70% 1.1k $11k (exactly $11,089) Superverse Industries
Seven Suns of Orion $4.99 22 100% 660 $3.3k (exactly $3,293) FerroFerrous

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.