Do I ship it?

Games › Shooter › Shooter + Transhumanism

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Transhumanist Shooter?

Shooter + Transhumanism

Only 15 developers shipped a Transhumanist Shooter in the last 2 years, too few for firm odds: the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.; the top game by est. revenue, INCISION, made about est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 56 more are announced, ×5.1 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $10k, ×16 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $1.2k; 1 in 20 cleared $440k, ×714 the market median. Revenue is down 85% on the market; 56 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 16.5 times the market baseline, revenue down 85% on the market, 56 announced, ×5.1 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Shooter + Transhumanism
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 15
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $185k → $1.1k → $50k → $8.1k → $14k (still earning) → $2.1k (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Shooter + Transhumanism: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 15
Bottom 30% $1.2k (exactly $1,166)
Median $10k (exactly $10,343)
Top 25% $67k (exactly $66,723)
Top 5% $448k (exactly $448,351)
Developers, 2 yr 15
Released games 49
Announced 56
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $14.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 85% on the market, supply 175% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 14%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Shooter
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Transhumanism
effort 4 / 10 · medium · effort 4 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Shooter; 5 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Action, Combat, Exploration
Price point
$14.99 typical · top 25% priced $24.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D, Atmospheric, First-Person
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $24.99 or above; the middle game at $14.99.

The top 10 games average 88% positive over 3,051 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $1.2k, median $10k, 1 in 4 over $66k, 1 in 20 over $440k.

3 in 10 developers made under $1.2k. 5 in 10 of the 6 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 56 games are announced against 11 developers who shipped in the last year, ×5.1 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Shooter with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + Dating SimFair23 devs · median $9.8k · 17 announced
  2. + CollectathonFair69 devs · median $1.4k · 64 announced
  3. + VampiresFair38 devs · median $1.3k · 41 announced
  4. + Walking SimulatorFair68 devs · median $1.2k · 62 announced
  5. + IdlerFair70 devs · median $836 · 59 announced
  6. + Match 3Fair15 devs · median $719 · 5 announced
  7. + SnowFair22 devs · median $570 · 23 announced
  8. + Boss RushFair16 devs · median $537 · 20 announced
  9. + IncrementalFair85 devs · median $479 · 88 announced
  10. + ArcadeLong shot1,151 devs · median $419 · 1,332 announced
  11. + Score AttackLong shot372 devs · median $300 · 352 announced
  12. + Open World Survival CraftPoor odds25 devs · median $139k · 45 announced

All 229 pairs on the Shooter page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Deus Ex: Mankind Divided 2016 · $28M Deus Ex: Human Revolution - Director's Cut 2013 · $15M SUPERHOT: MIND CONTROL DELETE 2020 · $6.9M Deadlink 2023 · $2.2M Binary Domain 2012 · $1.6M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Deus Ex: Mankind Divided older $29.99 30,709 77% 921k $28M (exactly $27,628,887) Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linu… (Eidos Montreal, Feral Interactive (Linux/Mac))
Deus Ex: Human Revolution - Director's Cut older $19.99 25,392 91% 762k $15M (exactly $15,227,582) Eidos Montreal
SUPERHOT: MIND CONTROL DELETE older $24.99 9,247 85% 277k $6.9M (exactly $6,932,476) SUPERHOT Team
Deadlink older $24.99 2,871 90% 86k $2.2M (exactly $2,152,389) Gruby Entertainment
Binary Domain older $14.99 3,567 86% 107k $1.6M (exactly $1,604,080) Devil's Details
Deus Ex: The Fall older $9.99 3,762 37% 113k $1.1M (exactly $1,127,471) ·
USAC: Code Breach older $14.99 1,067 91% 32k $480k (exactly $479,830) Questions Factory
Deus Ex: Invisible War older $6.99 2,199 57% 66k $461k (exactly $461,130) Ion Storm
INCISION $14.99 997 85% 30k $448k (exactly $448,351) SmoothBrainDev
CICADAMATA" $9.99 1,419 96% 43k $425k (exactly $425,274) ✿ flowergarden
Glitchpunk $19.99 174 47% 5.2k $104k (exactly $104,348) Dark Lord
HELL GALAXY $24.99 89 74% 2.7k $67k (exactly $66,723) Italian Games Factory
Tower Tag $9.99 180 90% 5.4k $54k (exactly $53,946) Steinfatt GmbH
Extraneum $14.99 111 94% 3.3k $50k (exactly $49,917) David Jalbert
HoverGrease 2 $19.99 24 83% 720 $14k (exactly $14,393) Altergaze
Alter Evo $14.99 23 95% 690 $10k (exactly $10,343) Technical Fiction
Brotherhood $9.99 27 96% 810 $8.1k (exactly $8,092) FatCatGames
Project RAZE: Fall of Terra · EA $9.99 7 100% 210 $2.1k (exactly $2,098) FearForge Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.