Do I ship it?

Games › Settings › Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot game?

Robots

Of 859 developers who shipped a Robot game in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 1,541 more are announced, ×3.3 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 5 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $840, ×1.3 the market's $630 for a 5 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $160; 1 in 20 cleared $320k, ×518 the market median. Revenue is down 10% on the market; 1,541 games are announced against 467 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 1.3 times the market baseline, revenue down 10% on the market, 1,541 announced, ×3.3 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 355
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 859
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $1.8k → $1.1k → $1.4k → $899 → $1.1k → $1.2k → $719 (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 859
Bottom 30% $155 (exactly $155)
Median $838 (exactly $838)
Top 25% $9.0k (exactly $8,996)
Top 5% $325k (exactly $325,133)
Developers, 2 yr 859
Released games 2,963
Announced 1,541
Effort 5 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $6.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 10% on the market, supply 20% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 16%, excluded from money figures.

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Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
5 / 10 · real systems or entry 3D
Price point
$6.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $6.99.

The top 10 games average 95% positive over 453,592 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $160, median $840, 1 in 4 over $8.9k, 1 in 20 over $320k.

3 in 10 developers made under $160. 8 in 10 of the 482 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 1,541 games are announced against 467 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.3 per shipper.

Plate 6 · every pair with this tag

All pairs with Robots

133 pairs with a mechanicwith: mechanics · settings · any
  1. 6DOF + Robots Fair $2.2k 10 devs
  2. Programming + Robots Fair $1.8k 24 devs
  3. Grid-Based Movement + Robots Long shot $239 28 devs
  4. Turn-Based + Robots Poor odds $141k 9 devs
  5. Souls-like + Robots Poor odds $32k 12 devs
  6. JRPG + Robots Poor odds $29k 13 devs
  7. Tactical RPG + Robots Poor odds $17k 15 devs
  8. Spectacle fighter + Robots Poor odds $16k 15 devs
  9. Time Manipulation + Robots Poor odds $11k 12 devs
  10. Dating Sim + Robots Poor odds $10k 15 devs
  11. Local Co-Op + Robots Poor odds $9.0k 30 devs
  12. Collectathon + Robots Poor odds $9.0k 23 devs
  13. Turn-Based Strategy + Robots Poor odds $6.7k 40 devs
  14. Looter Shooter + Robots Poor odds $6.0k 23 devs
  15. Online Co-Op + Robots Poor odds $5.8k 51 devs
  16. Loot + Robots Poor odds $5.4k 18 devs
  17. City Builder + Robots Poor odds $3.8k 12 devs
  18. Sandbox + Robots Poor odds $3.8k 52 devs
  19. Automation + Robots Poor odds $3.8k 39 devs
  20. Metroidvania + Robots Poor odds $3.6k 26 devs
  21. Hex Grid + Robots Poor odds $3.4k 11 devs
  22. On-Rails Shooter + Robots Poor odds $3.2k 10 devs
  23. Turn-Based Combat + Robots Poor odds $3.2k 36 devs
  24. Building + Robots Poor odds $2.9k 62 devs
  25. FPS + Robots Poor odds $2.9k 87 devs
  26. Visual Novel + Robots Poor odds $2.8k 45 devs
  27. Economy + Robots Poor odds $2.7k 18 devs
  28. Mining + Robots Poor odds $2.7k 18 devs
  29. Co-op + Robots Poor odds $2.4k 63 devs
  30. Turn-Based Tactics + Robots Poor odds $2.4k 48 devs
  31. Open World + Robots Poor odds $2.2k 39 devs
  32. Level Editor + Robots Poor odds $2.2k 24 devs
  33. Boomer Shooter + Robots Poor odds $2.1k 38 devs
  34. Crafting + Robots Poor odds $2.1k 55 devs
  35. Parkour + Robots Poor odds $2.1k 22 devs
  36. Character Customization + Robots Poor odds $2.0k 91 devs
  37. Action RPG + Robots Poor odds $1.9k 54 devs
  38. Gun Customization + Robots Poor odds $1.9k 31 devs
  39. Immersive Sim + Robots Poor odds $1.8k 30 devs
  40. Investigation + Robots Poor odds $1.7k 15 devs
  41. Procedural Generation + Robots Poor odds $1.7k 64 devs
  42. Deckbuilding + Robots Poor odds $1.7k 19 devs
  43. Strategy RPG + Robots Poor odds $1.7k 11 devs
  44. Twin Stick Shooter + Robots Poor odds $1.6k 38 devs
  45. Base Building + Robots Poor odds $1.6k 45 devs
  46. Inventory Management + Robots Poor odds $1.6k 16 devs
  47. Choose Your Own Adventure + Robots Poor odds $1.5k 29 devs
  48. Interactive Fiction + Robots Poor odds $1.5k 27 devs
  49. Exploration + Robots Poor odds $1.5k 170 devs
  50. Adventure + Robots Poor odds $1.5k 288 devs
Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Call of Duty®: Black Ops III 2015 · $284M Detroit: Become Human 2020 · $272M ULTRAKILL 2020 · EA · $192M Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition 2020 · $144M Stray 2022 · $142M
Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Call of Duty®: Black Ops III older $59.99 157,694 88% 4.7M $284M (exactly $283,801,892) Treyarch, Aspyr (Mac)
Detroit: Become Human older $39.99 226,411 96% 6.8M $272M (exactly $271,625,277) Quantic Dream
ULTRAKILL · EA older $29.99 213,450 97% 6.4M $192M (exactly $192,040,965) Arsi "Hakita" Patala
Horizon Zero Dawn™ Complete Edition older $49.99 95,804 87% 2.9M $144M (exactly $143,677,259) Guerrilla
Stray older $29.99 157,579 97% 4.7M $142M (exactly $141,773,826) BlueTwelve Studio
NieR:Automata™ older $39.99 115,103 88% 3.5M $138M (exactly $138,089,069) Square Enix, PlatinumGames Inc.
ARMORED CORE™ VI FIRES OF RUBICON™ older $59.99 66,987 91% 2.0M $121M (exactly $120,556,504) FromSoftware, Inc.
R.E.P.O. · EA $9.99 341,004 96% 10M $102M (exactly $102,198,899) semiwork
Five Nights at Freddy's: Security Breach older $39.99 65,350 86% 2.0M $78M (exactly $78,400,395) Steel Wool Studios
Atomic Heart older $59.99 41,690 81% 1.3M $75M (exactly $75,029,493) Mundfish
PRAGMATA $59.99 32,885 96% 987k $59M (exactly $59,183,134) CAPCOM Co., Ltd.
Far Far West · EA $19.99 31,458 95% 944k $19M (exactly $18,865,363) Evil Raptor
Five Nights at Freddy's: Secret of the Mimic $39.99 10,874 86% 326k $13M (exactly $13,045,538) Steel Wool Studios
Mechabellum $14.99 17,856 84% 536k $8.0M (exactly $8,029,843) Game River
RoboCop: Rogue City - Unfinished Business $29.99 3,931 84% 118k $3.5M (exactly $3,536,721) Teyon
MOTORSLICE $19.99 5,467 85% 164k $3.3M (exactly $3,278,560) Regular Studio
M.A.S.S. Builder $24.99 3,729 85% 112k $2.8M (exactly $2,795,631) Vermillion Digital
MIO: Memories in Orbit $19.99 4,300 83% 129k $2.6M (exactly $2,578,710) Douze Dixièmes
Warhammer 40,000: Mechanicus II $39.99 2,088 53% 63k $2.5M (exactly $2,504,974) Bulwark Studios

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.