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Should I ship a Robot Sandbox?
Sandbox + Robots
Of 52 developers who shipped a Robot Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 110 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.
Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.
The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×821 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 110 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.
| Bottom 30% | $419 (exactly $419) |
|---|---|
| Median | $3.8k (exactly $3,774) |
| Top 25% | $48k (exactly $47,952) |
| Top 5% | $515k (exactly $515,307) |
| Developers, 2 yr | 52 |
| Released games | 175 |
| Announced | 110 |
| Effort | 6 / 10 |
| AI-buildability | Medium |
| Typical price | $9.99 |
momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.
Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.
Can AI deliver it?
AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.
What it takes
- Effort
- 6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
- Systems
- Sandbox; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Exploration
- Price point
- $9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
- Art
- 5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Why players buy here
The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.
The top 10 games average 90% positive over 8,387 reviews.
What kills games here
3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 110 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.
Adjacent niches
Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.
- + FightingStrong odds
- + Turn-BasedFair
- + World War IIFair
- + MinigamesFair
- + ProgrammingFair
- + CatsFair
- + SportsFair
- + GamblingFair
- + Auto BattlerFair
- + Combat RacingFair
- + Trading Card GameFair
- + IdlerFair
Comparable games
| Capsule | Game | Released | Price | Reviews | Est. copies | Est. revenue | Developer |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| | Generation Zero® | older | $24.99 | 29,115 75% | 873k | $22M (exactly $21,827,516) | Systemic Reaction™ |
| | TerraTech | older | $24.99 | 20,564 92% | 617k | $15M (exactly $15,416,831) | Payload Studios |
| | Starbase | · EA older | $34.99 | 6,217 56% | 187k | $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) | Frozenbyte |
| | Per Aspera | older | $29.99 | 4,105 76% | 123k | $3.7M (exactly $3,693,268) | Tlön Industries |
| | Supreme Commander 2 | older | $12.99 | 8,349 87% | 250k | $3.3M (exactly $3,253,605) | Gas Powered Games |
| | Animal Revolt Battle Simulator | older | $14.99 | 6,571 95% | 197k | $3.0M (exactly $2,954,979) | VDimension |
| | FOUNDRY | · EA older | $29.99 | 3,272 82% | 98k | $2.9M (exactly $2,943,818) | Channel 3 Entertainment |
| | Job Simulator | older | $19.99 | 4,406 91% | 132k | $2.6M (exactly $2,642,278) | Owlchemy Labs |
| | Grey Goo | older | $29.99 | 2,602 69% | 78k | $2.3M (exactly $2,341,019) | Petroglyph, Six Foot |
| | Automation Empire | older | $29.99 | 2,584 65% | 78k | $2.3M (exactly $2,324,825) | DOG HOGGLER |
| | Mars First Logistics | $19.99 | 3,497 94% | 105k | $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) | Shape Shop | |
| | Microtopia | $19.99 | 881 87% | 26k | $528k (exactly $528,336) | Cordyceps Collective | |
| | Blossom: The Seed of Life | $16.99 | 1,011 88% | 30k | $515k (exactly $515,307) | Pebbledust Games | |
| | Astronomics | · EA | $19.99 | 706 89% | 21k | $423k (exactly $423,388) | Numizmatic |
| | NITRO GEN OMEGA | $29.99 | 398 83% | 12k | $358k (exactly $358,081) | DESTINYbit | |
| | Craftomation 101: Programming & Craft | $14.99 | 636 83% | 19k | $286k (exactly $286,009) | Luden.io | |
| | LIFE EFFECT Survival | · EA | $14.99 | 488 85% | 15k | $219k (exactly $219,454) | LIFE EFFECT |
| | World End Diner | $16.99 | 415 93% | 12k | $212k (exactly $211,525) | Andymente | |
| | Fun with Ragdolls Plus | $19.99 | 191 76% | 5.7k | $115k (exactly $114,543) | Jadon Barnes | |
| | Sky End Market | · EA | $18.99 | 164 96% | 4.9k | $93k (exactly $93,431) | Andymente |
Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.
Five niches a week, one death, one deep dive.
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