Do I ship it?

GamesSandboxSandbox + Robots

Specimen · observed

Should I ship a Robot Sandbox?

Sandbox + Robots

Of 52 developers who shipped a Robot Sandbox in the last 2 years: 3 in 10 made under est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., the middle one made est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 4 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method., 1 in 20 cleared est. revenue: est. copies × today's US list price; gross, before Steam's cut, taxes and refunds. See method.. 110 more are announced, ×3.5 for every developer who shipped in the last year.

Verdict: poor odds, for a 6 / 10 build.

The middle developer here made $3.8k, ×6.0 the market's $630 for a 6 / 10 build, and 3 in 10 made under $420; 1 in 20 cleared $510k, ×821 the market median. Revenue is down 60% on the market; 110 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year.

Deciding numbers: median 6.0 times the market baseline, revenue down 60% on the market, 110 announced, ×3.5 per developer who shipped in the last year.
Nobody has said they are building this yet.
Sandbox + Robots
Fig. 1 · this niche among 16,100
Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr n = 52
Median est. gross by half-year cohort, 2023 H1 to 2026 H2: $35k → $599 → $8.5k → $1.8k → $28k → $4.3k → $21k (still earning) → $449 (still earning)
The last cohort is still earning.
Outcomes for Sandbox + Robots: Plate 1 · outcomes, 2 yr, n = 52
Bottom 30% $419 (exactly $419)
Median $3.8k (exactly $3,774)
Top 25% $48k (exactly $47,952)
Top 5% $515k (exactly $515,307)
Developers, 2 yr 52
Released games 175
Announced 110
Effort 6 / 10
AI-buildability Medium
Typical price $9.99

momentum: how a niche's revenue percentiles and developer count moved between two equal, adjacent periods, divided by the market's own move. See method., 12 months: revenue down 60% on the market, supply 50% more developers than the period before.

Free games: 13%, excluded from money figures.

See every window in the explorer →

Plate 2 · systems and tooling

Can AI deliver it?

AI-buildability for this niche is medium: the lowest rating among its tags.

Sandbox
effort 6 / 10 · medium · effort 6 sits in the medium band
Robots
effort 5 / 10 · medium · effort 5 sits in the medium band

How the rubric works →

Plate 3 · the cost side

What it takes

Effort
6 / 10 · full 3D single-player, physics sims, content-heavy RPG
Systems
Sandbox; 6 in 10 of the top 25% also carry Simulation, Building, Exploration
Price point
$9.99 typical · top 25% priced $19.99 or above
Art
5 in 10 of the top 25% ship with 3D
Plate 4 · demand

Why players buy here

The top 25% priced at $19.99 or above; the middle game at $9.99.

The top 10 games average 90% positive over 8,387 reviews.

Plate 5 · the loss side

What kills games here

Developer outcomes in the last 2 years by share: 3 in 10 under $420, median $3.8k, 1 in 4 over $47k, 1 in 20 over $510k.

3 in 10 developers made under $420. 7 in 10 of the 24 games released 1 to 2 years ago have fewer than 100 reviews. 110 games are announced against 31 developers who shipped in the last year, ×3.5 per shipper.

Plate 6 · same mechanic, other settings

Adjacent niches

Sandbox with a different setting or mood, ranked by verdict then median.

  1. + FightingStrong odds11 devs · median $76k · 8 announced
  2. + Turn-BasedFair20 devs · median $224k · 19 announced
  3. + World War IIFair14 devs · median $146k · 13 announced
  4. + MinigamesFair9 devs · median $17k · 12 announced
  5. + ProgrammingFair60 devs · median $7.0k · 71 announced
  6. + CatsFair63 devs · median $4.8k · 74 announced
  7. + SportsFair83 devs · median $4.2k · 103 announced
  8. + GamblingFair25 devs · median $2.5k · 31 announced
  9. + Auto BattlerFair45 devs · median $1.9k · 42 announced
  10. + Combat RacingFair21 devs · median $1.8k · 26 announced
  11. + Trading Card GameFair17 devs · median $1.8k · 17 announced
  12. + IdlerFair258 devs · median $1.2k · 306 announced

All 233 pairs on the Sandbox page

Plate 7 · comparable specimens, by est. revenue

Comparable games

Capsule Game Released Price Reviews Est. copies Est. revenue Developer
Generation Zero® older $24.99 29,115 75% 873k $22M (exactly $21,827,516) Systemic Reaction™
TerraTech older $24.99 20,564 92% 617k $15M (exactly $15,416,831) Payload Studios
Starbase · EA older $34.99 6,217 56% 187k $6.5M (exactly $6,525,985) Frozenbyte
Per Aspera older $29.99 4,105 76% 123k $3.7M (exactly $3,693,268) Tlön Industries
Supreme Commander 2 older $12.99 8,349 87% 250k $3.3M (exactly $3,253,605) Gas Powered Games
Animal Revolt Battle Simulator older $14.99 6,571 95% 197k $3.0M (exactly $2,954,979) VDimension
FOUNDRY · EA older $29.99 3,272 82% 98k $2.9M (exactly $2,943,818) Channel 3 Entertainment
Job Simulator older $19.99 4,406 91% 132k $2.6M (exactly $2,642,278) Owlchemy Labs
Grey Goo older $29.99 2,602 69% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,341,019) Petroglyph, Six Foot
Automation Empire older $29.99 2,584 65% 78k $2.3M (exactly $2,324,825) DOG HOGGLER
Mars First Logistics $19.99 3,497 94% 105k $2.1M (exactly $2,097,151) Shape Shop
Microtopia $19.99 881 87% 26k $528k (exactly $528,336) Cordyceps Collective
Blossom: The Seed of Life $16.99 1,011 88% 30k $515k (exactly $515,307) Pebbledust Games
Astronomics · EA $19.99 706 89% 21k $423k (exactly $423,388) Numizmatic
NITRO GEN OMEGA $29.99 398 83% 12k $358k (exactly $358,081) DESTINYbit
Craftomation 101: Programming & Craft $14.99 636 83% 19k $286k (exactly $286,009) Luden.io
LIFE EFFECT Survival · EA $14.99 488 85% 15k $219k (exactly $219,454) LIFE EFFECT
World End Diner $16.99 415 93% 12k $212k (exactly $211,525) Andymente
Fun with Ragdolls Plus $19.99 191 76% 5.7k $115k (exactly $114,543) Jadon Barnes
Sky End Market · EA $18.99 164 96% 4.9k $93k (exactly $93,431) Andymente

Estimates: copies = reviews × 30, gross = copies × list price.